Revisiting Thursday
It’s been a few days since last Thursday’s stunning reversal giving us some time to sort out what it means. As predicted some found technical analogies to support the idea that the price action suggested a bottom was near. The…
Timiraos: Fed Wary Of Repeating 1970s Error
Were the Fed to ease because of growth fears before inflation has been vanquished, it would risk repeating its stop and go tightening of the 1970s, which economists now see as a costly policy error – Nick Timiraos, “Fed Wary…
Monetary Policy Is On A Preset Course For The Next Two Meetings; Is Powell Volcker 2.0?
For many years, in its statement the Fed insisted that monetary policy was NOT on a preset course but would instead be data dependent. At the moment, however, monetary policy IS on a preset course. The Fed will raise 50…
The Failure Of Post Modern Economics
Post Modernism in philosophy can best be defined as the rejection of an objective reality. The argument is that human thought is inherently subjective and there is no objective arbiter of truth. Therefore, there is only the clash of opinions….
20% Decline Is Just The Beginning
James Mackintosh wrote an excellent piece for The Wall Street Journal this morning (“Conditions Are Ripe For Deep Bear Market” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], Monday May 23, B9). A bear market is conventionally defined as a drop of at least 20% from…
A Meaningful Low Is Near
Take a close looks at the eighteen red dots in the chart above by Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader: 1987, 1990, 1998, 2008-2009, 2018-2019, 2020. Breadth readings this bad – this many stocks hitting 52-week lows on the NYSE and NASDAQ…
There Will Be No Soft Landing
There is an important front page story in today’s Wall Street Journal by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos entitled “Fed’s Chance Of Soft Landing Narrows” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]. It’s important because the market is priced for a soft landing – but…
The Analogy To The Bear Market Rally Spring 2008
There is a lot of debate about the interpretation of the current rally. Is it the start of a new bull market? Or is it a relief rally in an ongoing bear market? My view is the latter but let’s…
Is The Bottom In?
The powerful three day rally from Tuesday through Thursday has generated a lot of excitement and speculation that the bottom may be in. The NASDAQ is up more than 1,000 points (8%) over that span. Grant Hawkridge tweeted a nice…
Buy The Invasion
What investors have been fretting about finally happened: Russia invaded Ukraine Wednesday night. Bears have been correct in saying that we won’t see even an intermediate bottom until there is real fear – and we haven’t seen it yet. Well,…