Top Gun Returns 16% In The First Quarter of ’08

Thus, the process by which a disparate perception, when correct, became consensus would almost inevitably lead to meaningful profit.

– Michael Steinhardt, No Bull! (2001), pg. 129

Scottrade put up our client statements for March on Tuesday and I crunched the numbers yesterday.  Top Gun returned 16% in the first quarter of 2008!  And we’ve now returned 32.5% since inception on Jan 1, 2007 – beating the S&P 500 by almost 40% over that time span! (Top Gun Performance Chart).

Our excellent returns have come from two main sources: being short, which resulted in big gains in August of last year and January of this, and gold.

As I continue to believe, at odds with the market based on its recent action and price level, that the recession and bear market will be longer and deeper than consensus and that gold is still in only the middle stage of its move, I expect our returns to continue to be strong over the next year or two. 

At some point the economy and stock market will bottom and we’ll look to be positioned for the inevitable powerful rally when the big money will really be made.  But we’re still a ways away from that in my opinion.

Thanks to my parents, clients, friends, web designer, excellent people at Scottrade and readers for your help and support!