A Light 5-Bet All In At The Thunder Valley $1 Million Guarantee That Cost Me Big

I was cruising in Day 1C of the $1100 $1 Million Guarantee at Thunder Valley on Sunday (March 9). From 15,000 chips I was on a heater that pushed my stack above 140,000 at 500/1000/1000 – one of the top stacks in the flight at the time.

The hand that propelled me to a huge stack went like this. I raised to 2,200 from early position with AA at 500/1000/1000. Five players called creating a pot of 14,200. The flop came AJXhhh. In other words, I had flopped top set but someone else could have flopped a flush. The two blinds checked to me and I had to decide on my bet size.

My first thought was to bet close to pot size to push out hands with the Kh or Qh. On second thought, I realized that because I had two of the Aces, I had most of the good cards on the flop and that it made more sense to size my bet to get a call from players with those cards or a J. If someone had a flush, I decided I was going with my hand and would hope the board paired. So I bet 6,500, two players folded, the player on the button went All In, the two blinds folded and the action was back on me. I was pretty sure my opponent had a flush but I wasn’t folding. Sure enough he had 109hh but the turn was a J giving me the hand and I scooped a huge pot.

Shortly thereafter Ben Erwin broke the table and I moved to a new one that included 2024 WPT World Championship Champion Scott Stewart. It’s always fun to play with big name players though of course it’s also nerve wracking. My heater continued. I picked up QQ, raised to 2,100, got one caller, got 3-bet to 8,000, 4-bet to 25,000 and got a fold. Stewart raised UTG to 2,000, and I 3-bet to 6,000 with AKxh. Another player 4-bet to 20,000, Stewart folded and I called. The flop came down 10 high with two hearts and we both checked. When my opponent checked I immediately put him on AK as well and figured he was putting me on something like JJ since it was unlikely we had the same hand. The turn was a small heart and I led out for 15,000 hoping he didn’t have the Ah. He folded and I scooped another pot. I was hot but this is when things went south.

I had been playing all day with an acquaintance from Bay 101 in San Jose named Andrey Marsavin. When I got moved to the new table, I was in seat 2 and Marsavin in seat 1. The blinds had just increased to 600/1200/1200 when Marsavin raised to 2,500 from the button and I looked down at A10off in small blind. Knowing that my hand was ahead of most of Marsavin’s button raising range, I 3-bet to 7,500. Marsavin 4-bet to ~20,000 with a ~70,000 chip stack and I was faced with a decision.

To understand what I did, rewind to the Graton WSOPc Main Event last August when Marco Johnson was on my right. As I recounted in a blog from that time, Johnson was splashing around a lot preflop so when he raised the button and I looked down at K8dd, I thought it was plenty good to 3-bet with. Travis Fujisaka folded the big blind and when it came back to Marco on the button he 4-bet to ~19,700, putting me to the test. My first impulse was to shove because Marco was splashing around so much. But the more I thought about it, I decided that shoving K8dd with so many chips was essentially a punt. I folded and waited for a better spot.

Back to Sunday. On the one hand, I had a better hand this time (A10off vs K8dd). On the other hand, the factor I didn’t give enough weight to in the end is that I was playing against a different player. While Marco is clearly capable of a light 4-bet, I’m not sure Andrey is in this spot in a big tournament. But I had it in my mind that he was 4-betting light so I shoved and he snap called with JJ. I knew I was in bad shape when he called and his hand held up, cutting my stack in half. The hand deflated me and though I still had a healthy 60bb stack, I was deflated, couldn’t get the hand out of my head, the poker Gods turned on me, my stack dwindled and I was out on the last hand of the level.

In retrospect, I didn’t need to make this play. I could have folded and still had more than 130bb – a massive stack with which I could have continued pounding the table. My hand wasn’t strong enough to risk so many chips and I didn’t consider the chip utility of having such a large stack which I put at risk. There would have been plenty of other spots to put pressure on shorter stacked opponents and steal chips. Clearly, that’s what I should have done. Part of the reason I shoved was that I was on a huge heater and feeling a rush. Another part was probably the hand with Marco from last August – though I didn’t consciously think of it at the time. I thought I had the best hand but – like I said – I’m not sure a solid amateur like Andrey has light 4-bets in his range in that spot.

While the hand with Marco was probably in the back of my mind, a more relevant hand might be a well known one that played out between Chance Kornuth and Nicholas Rigby on Day 5 of the 2023 Main Event. Rigby raised to 100,000 on the button with AA at 15,000/30,000/30,000 and Chance looked down at AKhh in the big blind. Rigby had more than 3.8 million chips and Chance more than 3.1 million. Chance 3-bet to 385,000, Rigby went All In and Chance snap called. AKhh is a much better hand than A10off and Rigby is more capable of making a move in that spot than Marsavin. I am in no way comparing myself to the great Chance Kornuth – my favorite player. The point I want to make is that being one of the best players in the field with more than 100 big blinds and around 300 players left, Chance probably should have made a big fold and waited for a better spot. He had plenty of chips to find better spots and use his superior skill against weaker players rather than taking a somewhat marginal spot for everything preflop.