First Republic On The Brink
I have no doubt that First Republic (FRC) is a superior bank. At the same time, any bank under a fractional reserve model is subject to a loss of confidence by its depositors resulting in a bank run. And an…
A Stroll Down Memory Lane En Route To Thunder Valley
So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past – F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby Whenever I come back to Sacramento it stirs up all sorts of memories. I came to Sacramento in the…
Inflation Is Dead; Deflation Is At Hand
Inflation is yesterday’s news. The Fed had already crushed it with all its rate hikes and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and its collateral damage are ushering in deflation. While the Fed Futures are split on if the Fed…
FRC Is NOT SIVB
After Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) failed Friday, its Northern California neighbor First Republic (FRC) was in the crosshairs Monday – dropping 62%. However: FRC is NOT SIVB. SIVB was a an aggressive bank focused on the tech startup community. FRC…
The Fog Of War: SIVB, FRC, Fractional Reserve Banking And Bank Runs
If you’re looking for a guru to tell you how everything surrounding the failure of Silicon Valley Bank is going to play out, you’ve come to the wrong place. Because the truth is I have no idea – and neither…
Reminiscences Of 2007: SIVB, Bear Stearns And The Fed Decision
As everybody prepares for tomorrow morning’s Jobs Report, I’m focused on Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) – a small bank that caters to early stage technology companies (the heartbeat of the Silicon Valley economy). As interest rates have risen and financial…
CPB Is In Its Sweet Spot
CPB is the perfect stock for this market and now represents a nice entry – “CPB Is The Perfect Stock For This Market”, Top Gun Financial, March 10, 2022 Top Gun has been long Campbell Soup (CPB) for a year…
Will The Fed Make A Policy Mistake?
Fed Chair Powell gave testimony before Congress this morning that was decidedly hawkish. As a result, the probabilities of a 50 vs 25 point rate hike in two weeks flipped from 30/70 before his testimony to 70/30 after, as you…
Looking Ahead: Jobs Report, CPI And The Fed
I have been writing a lot about individual stocks in recent weeks but for the next few weeks macro will take center stage leading up to the Fed Decision on Wednesday March 22. As you can see in the chart…
Speculating On A COST Membership Fee Increase
Costco (COST) reports earnings after the close Thursday. As you already know from my weekly market preview blog, I am a COST shareholder. However, I think this quarter also holds the potential for a major upside surprise. COST is due…