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Patience vs Stubbornness: The Case of the NKE Turnaround
I was listening to the Nike (NKE) conference call about an hour ago, waiting for them to give their next quarter revenue guidance. When the CFO forecast a low to mid single digit decline and said that the revenue inflection…
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The Contradiction at the Heart of the Market
Let’s start with some context. The current bull market is being driven by optimism about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The premise is that AI will radically improve economic productivity resulting in a massive economic boom. It began on the afternoon of…
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Why Software Is The Play For Value Investors; 3 Stocks and 1 ETF To Buy and Hold
If you’re a value investor, you need to take a hard look at software stocks. While I am not an expert on AI or software, the valuations have become so cheap that the risk-reward equation is now strongly in favor…
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The Most Important Thing: Patient Opportunism
There aren’t always great things to do and sometimes we maximize our contribution by being discerning and relatively inactive. Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy…. You’ll do better if you wait for investments to…
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Play Your Game
There was a front page article in The Wall Street Journal [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED] on Tuesday about the newest star investor, 24 year old Leopold Aschenbrenner whose hedge fund is called Situational Awareness. As far as I can tell, Aschenbrenner has…
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You’re Not Who You Think You Are
When I was a young man, I was an avid reader of self help books. Anthony Robbins Unlimited Power and Awaken The Giant Within. Brian Tracy Maximum Achievement. Walter Doyle Staples Think Like A Winner. All of these books suggest…
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The Limits of the P/E Ratio and Why MU & SNDK Are Not Cheap
One of the most common and misleading stock market metrics is the Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Value investors frequently focus on this metric in their search for cheap stocks. Indeed, too many investors put too much emphasis on…
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Why The Cash Flow Statement Is More Important Than Ever
Most investors with a fundamental bent focus on the income statement. We want to know how fast a company is growing, what its margins are and how much money it’s making. This makes perfect sense. But the income statement consists…
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The Mises Moment: AI, TSLA, Iran
The great Austrian Economist Ludwig von Mises was the first to pinpoint the cause of the business cycle: overexpansion of credit by the central bank. The difficulty for investors has always been in applying his insight in a pragmatic way…
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The Secular Trend Toward Fitness and Longevity – And A Great Stock To Play It
My personal investment style is to look for long term secular trends that put the wind in the sails of an industry and then find the best companies in those sectors to invest in. The pet industry is one of…
