I’ll never forget it. It was 11:50am Friday March 26, 2021. I was short stocks, mainly tech stocks, and doing quite well when, all of a sudden and out of nowhere, stocks started to rip higher. From breaking down they went to exploding higher without rhyme or reason. I believe the NASDAQ ripped higher by ~2% in that time period into the close
The catalyst for Wednesday’s selloff was a hotter than expected April CPI Report. Overall inflation came in at +4.2% year over year and +0.8% month over month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was +3.0% year over year and +0.9% month over month.
Most analysts have been characterizing the current rotation in markets as from Growth to Value. However, while on Monday the S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE, -0.02%) outperformed the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW, -1.95%), on Tuesday growth (-0.43%) outperformed value (-1.35%). This calls into question the Growth to Value narrative.
A very important divergence is taking place in markets between the tech led NASDAQ and the broader market as represented by the S&P 500.
Many technicians are starting to note that Tech stocks are breaking down. I have been all over the false breakout in the QQQ so I’m simply going to update the chart through Thursday and point out that we’ve now closed three straight days below the February 12 close of $336.45.
On Wednesday morning April 21, I first wrote about a potential breakdown in the QQQ. Yesterday morning, I revisited the subject after the QQQ broke below its February 12 closing high around $336 to close around $330 on Tuesday.
Two weeks ago this morning I led with “QQQ: Failed Breakout Watch” (Top Gun Financial, Wednesday 4/21). Well, yesterday the QQQ broke down below its February 12, 2021 closing high of $336.45 to close at $330.14.
There is a very interesting dynamic playing out in the economy right now that is almost certain to result in significant inflation. That dynamic consists in the reality of inflation as described by corporate executives, some examples of which you can read above, combined with the Fed’s refusal to admit that it’s anything more than “transitory”.
Note: To sign up to be alerted when the morning blog is posted to my website, enter your name and email in the box in the right hand corner titled “New Post Announcements”. That will add you to my AWeber…
Note: To sign up to be alerted when the morning blog is posted to my website, enter your name and email in the box in the right hand corner titled “New Post Announcements”. That will add you to my AWeber…