The combination of all this fiscal and monetary stimulus is turbocharging what Keynes called aggregate demand. All that demand is putting tremendous stress on the global supply chain resulting in bottlenecks and raw material inflation. The inflation we are now…
It was exactly a week ago (Thu 10/14) that the futures were ramping up for what turned out to be a character changing day. Over the weekend, Callum Thomas posted the above chart on seasonality in his widely followed “Chart…
Cassandra was an ancient Greek priestess cursed to utter true prophecies but never to be believed. I can relate! On Monday I called for a Second Great Depression. This evening I am going to write about why I think this…
For the first time in 40 years we have real inflation in the US and the implications are enormous. It means the end of the 40 year bond bull market, a stock market crash and The Second Great Depression. In…
There are a number of companies on a different fiscal year whose quarter ended at the end of August rather than September and therefore give us a preview of what to expect when 3Q earnings season swings into full gear…
A lot happened this week and it was almost all bearish in my opinion. The week started (Monday) and ended (Friday) with concerns about the collapse of behemoth Chinese property conglomerate Evergrande. US markets don’t seem much concerned about it…
Despite the government and its apologists insistence that inflation is “transitory”, reports from companies on the ground suggest otherwise. As you can see in the graphic above, 3M (MMM) forecasted on July 27 that raw materials and logistics inflation would…
This afternoon, dating app Bumble (BMBL) reported second quarter earnings. Last Tuesday, Tinder parent Match (MTCH) reported the same. If you want a date, check them out. But what about the stocks? Let’s start with Tinder. Tinder is the leading…
I went to one who had the reputation of wisdom, and observed to him – his name I need not mention; he was a politician whom I selected for examination – and the result was as follows: When I began to talk with…
The most important event of the week was the Fed Decision on Wednesday afternoon. While the Fed did not make any policy changes (the Fed Funds Rate continues at 0% as well as $120 Billion/month in asset purchases) they did start to talk about inflation raising the possibility of tapering asset purchases and raising interest rates down the road. That was enough to create a dramatic reaction in financial markets.