The Massive Bluff That Potentially Cost Me My 2nd WSOP Ring – And Why I Regret It

I haven’t played much poker in the last 4 1/2 months as life has interfered: health problems, legal issues, business, etc… But I decided to head up to Thunder Valley from the Bay Area early Monday morning to play Event 6 of their current WSOP series ($400 Freezeout). I knew it would be a long day but I felt like getting away and mixing it up.

I was hot pretty much right from the start. When registration closed at the beginning of Level 9 at ~2:45pm, I was the chip leader with 160,000 chips. When I saw that I immediately started to think that this was my opportunity to get my 2nd ring.

Two hours later – at the next break – I was still the chip leader as I continued to increase my stack playing big stack poker. I was making a lot of hands – and stealing a lot of pots as well.

When we got to the final table I was the chip leader and felt confident that I would close it out. I would have been shocked it you told me that I’d be out in 10th place shortly.

It all started innocently enough. UTG raised to 20,000 at 5,000/10,000/10,000, Alejandro Madrigal called in mid-position and I called in the big blind with K10dd. That’s when things got spicy. The flop came down Qd9d6x. I had flopped a straight flush draw and was licking my chops in anticipation of taking down a big pot if I could hit my draw.

UTG bet 30,000 into 75,000 and Madrigal raised to 85,000. I wasn’t expecting that. Now I was presented with my first decision. Madrigal had been splashing around as much as me despite having less chips so I didn’t necessarily put him on a huge hand. Indeed, he 3-betted me from the small blind when I raised 98off from mid-position not too long before – the fourth consecutive hand I’d raised. I thought he might have a draw or AQ. Not considering that he might have a monster was my first mistake.

Nevertheless, it didn’t make sense to re-raise and create a huge pot given that all three players in the hand had decent stacks while there were a few short stacks at the table and all I had was a draw at this point. I called and UTG folded. The pot had now ballooned to 275,000 – almost 10% of all the chips in play.

The turn was another 9x. Not a good card for me. I checked and Madrigal bet 110,000. If he had a full house, I was literally drawing to one card: the Jd for a straight flush. I considered folding but my image of Madrigal as well as the strength of my hand caused me to decide to call with the intention of giving up on the river. That was the plan anyway.

With the pot now 495,000, a harmless 2x rolled off on the river. When I looked at Madrigal’s stack, I realized that he only had ~250,000 chips. Therefore, a bluff only had to work 1 out of 3 times over the long term to be profitable. Because my image of Madrigal as splashy as well as the stack to pot ratio, I made an impulsive move and went All In. Madrigal snap called and showed 99 for quads.

What do I think of my bluff this morning after having time to think it over?

In a vacuum, it wasn’t a bad play. I was representing 66 and I think he would have folded AQ or KQ. Another hand I could have pushed him off was A6dd. Obviously he wasn’t going to fold a full house or quads. Over the long term, I think this bluff works more than 1/3 of the time.

Nevertheless, it was a mistake. The main reason is context. I had a big stack, I felt sure I was the best player at the table and so I should have check folded. I’m confident I could have rebuilt my stack against this group of players. If I was playing with a bunch of better players than me, I like the bluff more because I’m not going to be able to outplay them. But I was outplaying these guys and I could have continued to. I still would have had ~400,000 chips which is plenty. Instead I had 129,000 – 13 big blinds. There’s not a lot of maneuverability with 13 bbs. I was out not too long after.

The other mistake I made was not to give Madrigal’s flop raise enough respect. I was skeptical that he had a set or Q9. I just didn’t believe him. In the end I got complacent, underestimated my opponent and made a bad play.

It reminds me of the time Scotty Nguyen got into it with his nemesis Philipp Hilm a few players away from the 2007 Main Event Final table. Nguyen raised from the SB with AQ and Hilm called from the BB with 55. The flop came down Q65 rainbow. Nguyen continuation bet and Hilm called. The turn was a K. Nguyen checked, Hilm made a big bet and Nguyen check raised All In. Hilm called with Nguyen drawing dead. Scotty went out shortly after in 11th. Before making that check raise All In, Scotty had a healthy stack and was the best player at the table. He was the favorite to win his second Main Event if he hadn’t blown up. (See 35:00-38:00 in the YouTube for the hand).