China Archive

America on the Brink

George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  No Comments »

The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown

Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST: 14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  2 Comments »

The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression

The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated - Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% ...
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A Preview of 1st Quarter Earnings

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the ...
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The Chinese Slowdown

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  1 Comment »

WSJ: China Inc. Looks Homeward As U.S. Shoppers Turn Frugal

September 29, 2009  ·  Category: China, Geopolitics, Macro Economics
We relied too much on the U.S. market. ...... China's ability to consume has now reached a fairly high level.  It's at a turning point. - Tom Tseng, General Manager of bicycle manufacturer Tandem Industries, whose U.S. sales ...
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A Stab At Resolving The Inflation/Deflation Debate

September 26, 2009  ·  Category: China, Economics, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Japan
There is a great debate raging between students of monetary economics.  On the one hand, there are the deflationists who point to the massive deleveraging in the housing, mortgage, credit and stock markets.  The fall ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  2 Comments »

Is The Commodity Rally A Head Fake?

June 11, 2009  ·  Category: China, Commodities, Market Commentary
China’s strategic stockpiling and replacement of lower-quality domestic production with higher-quality imports have supported the recent rally in prices for many base metals, but we will not see a sustainable turnaround in demand until the ...
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NYT: China Grows More Picky About Debt

May 21, 2009  ·  Category: China, Commodities, Geopolitics, Gold, Macro Economics
China bought less than a sixth of the Treasuries issued in the 12 months through March.  Less than two years ago, by contrast, Chinese purchases of Treasuries, which included purchases in the secondary market as ...
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Chinese Stock Market Cracks

April 21, 2008  ·  Category: China, Sentiment Analysis
The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting front page article this weekend on the Chinese stock market, "China Stocks, Once Frothy, Fall By Half In Six Months" (subscription required).  The chart tells the story: Shanghai ...
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