The Next Bubble
With the Fed slashing the funds rate to 1% today, it’s worth remembering what happened the last time they did this: We got the most massive housing bubble in the history of mankind. Well, today, in the midst of this…
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Fed To Market: Helicopters In Position
As expected, the Fed today cut the funds rate 50 basis points from 1.5% to 1.0%. But I don’t think enough attention is being paid to the statement. The Fed appears to me to have completely sold out their concern…
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Freeport McMoran Now Attractive – An Example Of Emerging Value
About 6 months ago I wrote a post arguing that copper giant Freeport McMoran (FCX) was overvalued (“Freeport Valuation Bloated Here”, Top Gun FP, April 23, 2008). At the time, Freeport was trading at $118 a share and my call…
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Why I Got Long Oil Today
I think oil is starting to become oversold in the way the financials were a month ago: At $113 a barrel oil is down about 23% from its highs last month. The 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) is right around…
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Goldman Calls a Bottom In The Dollar
Dollar strength will not be a straight line….. nevertheless, dollar lows are almost certainly behind us. – “Calling A Bottom In The Dollar”, Goldman Sachs … the euro ‘rubber band’ is stretched as far as it’s ever been stretched. That…
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There’s Something Happening Here: The Evolution Of The Bear
There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear….. There’s battle lines being drawn. – Buffalo Springfield, “For What It’s Worth” Sooner or later in a bear market, even the glory stocks start to come apart. As a bull…
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Revisiting Last Week’s Selloff – It’s All About Oil, The Dollar And Inflation
Every weekend I write a client note in which I attempt to summarize the week’s action and highlight significant events. As I was writing it last night I was struggling to make sense of the huge selloff we saw last…
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One Of The Biggest Oil Winners Of The Last Decade Decides To Get Out
I sold my Chevron. I sold my Conoco Phillips. I sold my Statoil. I sold my ENSCO. I sold my Pioneer Natural Resources. I sold everything. – Richard Rainwater, who made about $2 billion investing in energy stocks and futures over…
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Job Losses = Dollar Drop = Oil Rise = Stock Market Crash
The unemployment rate rose from 5.0 to 5.5 in May, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-49,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor reported today. – May Jobs Report, BLS If Iran continues…
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Bernanke Talks Up The Dollar
In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury, we continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets. The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange…