Federal Reserve Archive

The Hallmark of a Bubble, The Long Term Consequences of Massive Government Stimulus and Bank Earnings

Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday's memo, "Coming ...
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The Great Disconnect and The Fed Put

Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we     are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on ...
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The Top Is Probably In

Let's flashback to March 2000 when the Dot.com Bubble topped. The NASDAQ closed above 5,000 twice - Thursday 3/9 and Friday 3/10. And that was it. Today, the NASDAQ closed above 10,000 for the first ...
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Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong

The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
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The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression

The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated - Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% ...
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Why This Bull Market Could Be On Its Last Legs

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 0.25%-0.50%.  Since then, markets have soared as investors celebrate the continuation of easy money.  However, the Fed also fairly clearly telegraphed a rate ...
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Retail Recession

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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Living On Borrowed Time

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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This Is How It Begins

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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Some Things To Worry About

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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