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The Market Is About To Break

The Market Is About To Break

October 3, 2023 Reading Time: 3 minutes

On August 24, I argued in “The Bear Market Rally Is Over” that the outperformance of The Magnificent 7 was masking weak overall market internals and that the bear market was over. About a month later on September 20, the…

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S&P 200 DMA, Higher For Longer Isn’t Sustainable, CAG Is Too Cheap

S&P 200 DMA, Higher For Longer Isn’t Sustainable, CAG Is Too Cheap

September 30, 2023 Reading Time: 4 minutes

September was a tough month for stocks with the S&P down 4.87% and the NASDAQ 5.81%. In fact, the S&P is currently sitting only 2% above its 200 DMA. The 200 DMA is the most important indicator in technical analysis….

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Yields Break Out, The Olive Tree Barometer

Yields Break Out, The Olive Tree Barometer

September 22, 2023 Reading Time: 3 minutes

In the wake of the Fed’s “hawkish pause” Wednesday, in which they paused their interest rate hiking campaign but said they may still hike one more time this year and increased their forecast for the Fed Funds rate at the…

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Peak Hawkishness: All In On TLT

Peak Hawkishness: All In On TLT

September 21, 2023 Reading Time: 4 minutes

[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed…

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Can The Fed Engineer A Soft Landing? AZO Earnings

Can The Fed Engineer A Soft Landing? AZO Earnings

September 19, 2023 Reading Time: 4 minutes

While the Fed is almost certain to pause its interest rate hiking campaign tomorrow, the question now is whether it can engineer a soft landing. On the front page of today’s WSJ, Nick Timiraos surveyed the risks (“Why A Soft…

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Preview Week of Sep18-22: Fed Decision, AZO GIS FDX KBH DRI Earnings

Preview Week of Sep18-22: Fed Decision, AZO GIS FDX KBH DRI Earnings

September 15, 2023 Reading Time: 6 minutes

The focus next week will be on the Fed Decision on Wednesday at 2pm EST. However – despite the August CPI coming in slightly hotter than expected this Wednesday – the Fed is widely expected to pause. Whether they are…

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Looking Ahead: Aug CPI, Fed Meeting, ZS DOCU KR Earnings

Looking Ahead: Aug CPI, Fed Meeting, ZS DOCU KR Earnings

September 2, 2023 Reading Time: 5 minutes

The August Jobs Report on Friday was a “goldilocks” report by consensus. The economy added 187,000 jobs in August – according to the BLS – while prior months were revised down by 110,000. It therefore appears that the jobs market…

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Navigating The Soft Landing Narrative

Navigating The Soft Landing Narrative

July 26, 2023 Reading Time: 7 minutes

There’s an actual chance here the Fed could stick the landing – Dryden Pence, CIO Pence Capital Management (quoted in Karen Langley “Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals As Rally Builds” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ B1 Wednesday 7/26) In less than…

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Euphoria Reigns As Investors Price In Soft Landing

Euphoria Reigns As Investors Price In Soft Landing

July 19, 2023 Reading Time: 5 minutes

The stock market rally so far this year is only picking up speed. Last week’s benign June CPI Report has led investors to believe that the Fed will end its hiking cycle next week without pushing the economy into a…

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Inflation Is Dead, The Fed Is One And Done, And Stocks Only Go Up

Inflation Is Dead, The Fed Is One And Done, And Stocks Only Go Up

July 12, 2023 Reading Time: 4 minutes

The June CPI Report came in below expectations Wednesday morning resulting in another rally in stocks. Headline CPI was 3.0% and Core 4.8%. For some reason the Fed feels the need to hike rates one more time in two weeks…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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