Shades of 1999
In a must watch interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning, legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones compared the current environment to 1999. PTJ is a trader and his primary reason for saying so is “flows”. What he means by that…
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The Return of the Bond Vigilantes
I used to think that if there was reincarnation I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can…
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Yields Front And Center Ahead Of Fed Decision
The market is pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. But the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply over the last week. What gives? Contrary to many people’s…
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The Big Day Is Here: Understanding What The Markets Wants From The Fed
This is the strangest Fed Meeting in a long time according to the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. Trump failed in his bid to remove Lisa Cook from the meeting as an appeals court ruled 2-1 Monday night that she could attend….
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Wild Days: ORCL +$200 Billion, 911,000 Disappearing Jobs, Thin Leadership = 9th Inning
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the manic nature of this market. The latest is example is the reaction to Oracle (ORCL) earnings Tuesday afternoon. Revenue and Net Income were +12% and +8%, respectively. But there were a few wild…
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Long Rates Hold The Key To Markets
The consensus after Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday morning at Jackson Hole is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17. Therefore interest rates are going lower, right? Not so fast. The Fed controls the…
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The Market Fears Hawkish Powell – And Rightly So; WMT Earnings
The market is selling off Thursday ahead of Powell’s keynote speech tomorrow morning at 10am EST at Jackson Hole. The odds of a 25 basis point cut on September 17 have decreased from 92% a week ago to 73.5% today….
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Dispatch From Wonder Land: Fed To Cut With Market At ATHs, CAVA Reaction Illustrates Wall Street’s Short Termism, Trump’s State Capitalism With American Characteristics, Buffett’s Secret Stock
For years one of my favorite columns in The Wall Street Journal was Dan Henninger’s Wonder Land which he sadly discontinued after 23 years this January. So I’m taking over for the day because yesterday was a whopper! While Henninger…
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How Jesse Livermore Timed The Market In 1916 – And Its Relevance Today
In my opinion the greatest book ever written on trading is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) by Edwin Lefevre. Reminiscences tells the story of Jesse Livermore – by most accounts the greatest trader of all time – under the…
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Bull Market In Jeopardy As Trump Trade Sours
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria – John Templeton The election of Donald Trump last November was at first met with euphoria by investors. Tax cuts, streamlined regulation, improved government…
