The Bearish Case Has Rarely Been Stronger
While the S&P is near all time highs it might surprise you to know that the bearish case has rarely been stronger during my almost 20-year career in the business. In this blog I’m going to lay out a bunch…
Why I Suspect The Market Is About To Break Down
During the three weeks from Friday March 29 through Friday April 19, the S&P dropped from 5,254 to 4,967 (287 points or 5.5%). When it rallied from Monday April 22 through this Monday April 29 to 5,116 (149 points) –…
The S&P Stalls At Its 50 DMA Ahead Of A Huge Week: AMZN & AAPL Earnings, Fed Meeting, April Jobs Report
As I suggested late afternoon last Thursday, the most likely scenario was for the S&P to gap up to near its 50 DMA in the wake of strong Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) earnings and then trade sideways for the…
Be OMO Not FOMO, The Resumption Of The Bear Market, NFLX Is Extremely Overvalued
I wouldn’t be taking as big of a risk because of valuations. It’s terrifying how narrow the rally has been. You need growth to surprise to the upside. If not, high multiples can get compressed, and that can happen quickly….
March CPI Comes In Hot But S&P Holds 5150
The March CPI Report came in hotter than expected Wednesday morning with both headline and core increasing 0.4% from a month earlier – compared to expectations (and hopes) of 0.3%. As a result, stocks fell and the yield on the…
March CPI Preview
The moment has finally arrived: The BLS will announce the March CPI at 8:30am EST Wednesday. Trading has been subdued this week as investors position ahead of the report. While Tuesday was not a third consecutive inside day, its price…
Monday Was Another Inside Day As Stocks Coil Ahead Of The March CPI
Last Thursday the market opened strong only to roll over hard into the close. The S&P had a 100 point range of approximately 5150 to 5250. Friday was an inside day in which all of the price action took place…
Inside Day, March CPI, 1Q Earnings Season
Friday was an interesting day as the market rallied in the wake of the stronger than expected March Jobs Report. Technically, it was an inside day with all of the price action taking place within Thursday’s range. Therefore, Thursday’s range…
Fed Rate Hiking Cycles And Recessions: A History Lesson
In “The Market Will Soon Hit An Air Pocket And Drop 20% In A Matter Of Months” (Thursday March 28) the second reason I gave for the coming crash was: Monetary policy acts with a lag and will hit the…
The Bulls Dunk On The Bears
The bulls are winning the fight. A correction is three to six months [away]. There’s so much fear of missing out – Adam Parker, Trivariate Research, quoted in Barron’s The Trader column 3/23 [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED] There’s really no way around…