Year End Letter: Top Gun Returns 38% in 2025
January 3, 2026 It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes – Jesse Livermore The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at…
Digging Into The Under-Depreciation Debate
Michael Burry’s bear case is based on the premise that the AI hyperscalers are under-depreciating their capital spending in order to keep reported GAAP profits artificially high. There is also the suggestion that much of this CapEx will be malinvestment…
Why I Suspect This Is A Bear Market Rally
I have been going back and forth over the last week or two: Bear Market Rally or Correction In An Ongoing Bull Market? In the wake of the strong bullish reaction to Google’s (GOOG/GOOGL) 1Q25 earnings report on Thursday April…
This Is Where Things Get Interesting
It’s been quite a rally the last few weeks as Trump has walked back the outrageous tariffs he announced on Liberation Day and 4 of The Magnificent 7 have reported solid earnings over the last week. 5,500 represents a significant…
GOOG Earnings, Breakout Pending, 1998 Analogy
Google (GOOG/GOOGL) reported 1Q25 earnings after the close Thursday. I think Gene Munster is right in characterizing the quarter as “good but not great” as Search Revenue growth continues to decelerate. Nevertheless, with the stock beat down over the last…
*UPDATED WITH MSFT and META RESULTS* Mag 7 Fundamentals Are Stellar – But Valuations Are Stretched
In analyzing the markets we must always keep in mind that the Mag 7 make up approximately 30% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. As a result, so go the Mag 7, so goes the major market indexes….
The Market Is Correctly Starting To Price In A Recession And The Magnificent 7 Are Played Out
The narrative over the last few weeks has been that the defeat of inflation will allow The Fed to cut rates in September has resulted in a rotation out of Mega-Cap Tech (QQQ) and into Small Caps (IWM) which will…
GOOG/GOOGL: Blowout Quarter, MSFT: Excellent Quarter As Well
Google (GOOG/GOOGL) just reported a blowout quarter after the market close Thursday. Revenue was +15%, Operating Margin surged to 31.6% from 25.0% a year ago and EPS of $1.89 is up 62% from the year ago period. These are massive…
The Bull Market Has Been Canceled
Any weakness in [Big Tech’s earnings reports] could be the catalyst for the market weight S&P to decisively break below its 200 DMA which I’ve been forecasting for three weeks now – “Market Technicals Heading Into Big Tech Earnings”, Top…
Market Technicals Heading Into Big Tech Earnings
The market weight S&P 500 closed just below its 200 DMA Monday as we head into the heart of 3Q23 earnings season with Google (GOOG/GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (META) and Amazon (AMZN) all reporting earnings this week. As Karen Langley…