In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury, we continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets. The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange…
I’ll tell you another area where we’ve been foolin’ ourselves and that’s the belief that inflation is under control. Gross on using owner equivalent rent instead of home prices in calculating the CPI: ….. the first occurring in 1983 with the…
Troubling all around, lower confidence and ongoing inflation worries. – Ian Lyngen, Interest Rate Strategist, RBS Greenwich Capital This morning the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell to 59.5 – down from 62.6 in April and its lowest level…
Using an overly aggressive seasonal adjustment factor, the statistical magicians turned an actual 6.5% surge in gasoline prices into a small decline. I wonder if they can read the minds of very skeptical American motorists who are not fooled by…
The money supply’s rate of growth is nothing short of jaw dropping. – Irwin Kellner, “Follow the money”, Marketwatch, Tuesday March 25 According to economist Irwin Kellner in an article on Marketwatch today, M2 money supply grew at annualized rate…
While everybody has been focused on the stock market holding the lows from Jan 22-23, less noticed has been the fact that long term treasuries are holding their highs from the same period (30 Year T Bond Chart). As you…
Is the Federal Reserve an independent monetary authority or a handmaiden beholden to political and market players? Has it reverted to its mistaken behavior in the 1970s? Recent actions and public commitments, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress…
Inflation is poised to become a serious threat to the world’s economic well being – and not enough people are talking about it. While Wall Street whines and whines about how the Fed is behind the curve, they need to…
The January CPI came in up .4% compared to last month while the core CPI was up .3% (January 2008 CPI Report) – each .1% above Wall Street expectations. Combined with oil’s surge to $100 yesterday, this has put inflation front…
With inflation creeping up, we have to be particularly alert for rising inflation expectations. It is important that inflation expectations remain stable. If those expectations become unhinged, they could rapidly fuel inflation. Moreover, as we learned from the experience of…