The Return of the Bond Vigilantes
I used to think that if there was reincarnation I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can…
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Buy The Dip In Gold
On March 29, 2024 The Wall Street Journal’s Aaron Back wrote a prescient piece about why gold was rallying despite a lack of inflation (“Gold Is Rallying. It Isn’t About Inflation This Time” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]; I wrote about Back’s article…
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The Roots Of Financial Nihilism
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino the job is likely to be ill done – John Maynard Keynes There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts…
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How To Navigate A Bubble II
It’s been two weeks now since I wrote “How To Navigate A Bubble”. Since then, the S&P has tacked on another 50 points – from 6,664 to 6,715. Market timing is notoriously difficult. So difficult, in fact, that many of…
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Dispatch From Wonder Land: Fed To Cut With Market At ATHs, CAVA Reaction Illustrates Wall Street’s Short Termism, Trump’s State Capitalism With American Characteristics, Buffett’s Secret Stock
For years one of my favorite columns in The Wall Street Journal was Dan Henninger’s Wonder Land which he sadly discontinued after 23 years this January. So I’m taking over for the day because yesterday was a whopper! While Henninger…
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How Jesse Livermore Timed The Market In 1916 – And Its Relevance Today
In my opinion the greatest book ever written on trading is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) by Edwin Lefevre. Reminiscences tells the story of Jesse Livermore – by most accounts the greatest trader of all time – under the…
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Bull Market In Jeopardy As Trump Trade Sours
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria – John Templeton The election of Donald Trump last November was at first met with euphoria by investors. Tax cuts, streamlined regulation, improved government…
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Persistent Inflation Means Gold Will Continue To Shine
Is there a more hated asset than gold? Keynes called it a “barbarous relic”. Warren Buffett is famously not a fan of gold. And yet gold is working now precisely as it should as a hedge against inflation and excessive…
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This Week: NVDA CEO Huang Keynote AI Speech, BOJ & Fed Decisions
Monday at 1pm PST, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will be giving a keynote speech at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Obviously Huang is going to hype AI. The real question…
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Sticky Inflation And The Neutral Rate
I just filled up my gas tank and it was over $5/gallon. This is just another example of sticky inflation: Inflation may not be going up as fast as it was a couple years ago but prices are still quite…
