The Roots Of Financial Nihilism
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino the job is likely to be ill done – John Maynard Keynes There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts…
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How To Navigate A Bubble II
It’s been two weeks now since I wrote “How To Navigate A Bubble”. Since then, the S&P has tacked on another 50 points – from 6,664 to 6,715. Market timing is notoriously difficult. So difficult, in fact, that many of…
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Dispatch From Wonder Land: Fed To Cut With Market At ATHs, CAVA Reaction Illustrates Wall Street’s Short Termism, Trump’s State Capitalism With American Characteristics, Buffett’s Secret Stock
For years one of my favorite columns in The Wall Street Journal was Dan Henninger’s Wonder Land which he sadly discontinued after 23 years this January. So I’m taking over for the day because yesterday was a whopper! While Henninger…
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How Jesse Livermore Timed The Market In 1916 – And Its Relevance Today
In my opinion the greatest book ever written on trading is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) by Edwin Lefevre. Reminiscences tells the story of Jesse Livermore – by most accounts the greatest trader of all time – under the…
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Bull Market In Jeopardy As Trump Trade Sours
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria – John Templeton The election of Donald Trump last November was at first met with euphoria by investors. Tax cuts, streamlined regulation, improved government…
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Persistent Inflation Means Gold Will Continue To Shine
Is there a more hated asset than gold? Keynes called it a “barbarous relic”. Warren Buffett is famously not a fan of gold. And yet gold is working now precisely as it should as a hedge against inflation and excessive…
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This Week: NVDA CEO Huang Keynote AI Speech, BOJ & Fed Decisions
Monday at 1pm PST, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will be giving a keynote speech at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Obviously Huang is going to hype AI. The real question…
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Sticky Inflation And The Neutral Rate
I just filled up my gas tank and it was over $5/gallon. This is just another example of sticky inflation: Inflation may not be going up as fast as it was a couple years ago but prices are still quite…
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Sticky Inflation Means Higher For Longer And The Magnificent 7 Are Out Of Gas
Stocks rallied hard on Tuesday in the wake of the February CPI – but it didn’t make any sense. The CPI came in slightly hotter than expected and this sticky inflation has taken a May rate cut off the table….
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The Return Of Higher For Longer, DLTR: A Tale Of Two Economies
As markets have digested the slightly hotter than expected February CPI on Tuesday morning, the idea of sticky inflation has started to take hold and the debate about the timing of the first rate cut pushed back to June. A…
