Any way you slice it, inflation is clearly coming down and seemingly under control. Wednesday’s April CPI Report was just the latest data point to confirm that. And that means that the Fed’s hiking cycle is likely over. Fed Futures…
There are basically two narratives you can have at the current moment. The consensus view is that now that inflation is under control, the bear market is over and stocks are on the verge of a new bull market. The…
There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty and disagreement about what the Fed will and should do on Wednesday. Nick Timiraos provided an excellent overview in an article on the front page of Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal (“Fed’s Interest-Rate Decision…
Inflation is yesterday’s news. The Fed had already crushed it with all its rate hikes and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and its collateral damage are ushering in deflation. While the Fed Futures are split on if the Fed…
Fed Chair Powell gave testimony before Congress this morning that was decidedly hawkish. As a result, the probabilities of a 50 vs 25 point rate hike in two weeks flipped from 30/70 before his testimony to 70/30 after, as you…
I have been writing a lot about individual stocks in recent weeks but for the next few weeks macro will take center stage leading up to the Fed Decision on Wednesday March 22. As you can see in the chart…
While the price action still favors the bulls, the market has been marginally weak over the last five trading sessions since Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) reported 4Q22 earnings on Thursday afternoon February 2nd. One of the more…
The precious metals have been on fire the last four months and The Wall Street Journal took notice this morning in an article on the front of their “Business & Finance” section. The most popular gold and silver miners ETFs…
The S&P closed above its 200 DMA Monday on hope that the Fed is close to done in its fight against inflation and the economy will avoid a recession. Investors are pricing in a “Goldilocks scenario” according to Liz Ann…
Stocks are bouncing hard into the start of 4Q22 earnings season as investors anticipate the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos had a must read article on the front page of today’s Wall Street…