Looking Ahead: Jobs Report, CPI And The Fed
I have been writing a lot about individual stocks in recent weeks but for the next few weeks macro will take center stage leading up to the Fed Decision on Wednesday March 22. As you can see in the chart…
Icahn’s Puts And The January CPI
While the price action still favors the bulls, the market has been marginally weak over the last five trading sessions since Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) reported 4Q22 earnings on Thursday afternoon February 2nd. One of the more…
Why Are The Precious Metals Rallying?
The precious metals have been on fire the last four months and The Wall Street Journal took notice this morning in an article on the front of their “Business & Finance” section. The most popular gold and silver miners ETFs…
Tuesday Morning Rundown: Goldilocks, DHI UNP LMT Earnings
The S&P closed above its 200 DMA Monday on hope that the Fed is close to done in its fight against inflation and the economy will avoid a recession. Investors are pricing in a “Goldilocks scenario” according to Liz Ann…
Stocks Run Up Into Earnings Season As The Fed Considers Pausing
Stocks are bouncing hard into the start of 4Q22 earnings season as investors anticipate the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos had a must read article on the front page of today’s Wall Street…
Fed And Market Play Chicken
There is an article coming on the front page of Friday’s WSJ that you are going to want to read (“Markets, Fed Split On Rate Forecasts”, Timiraos and Otani [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]). As you can see in the graph above from…
An Analysis Of The DEC22 CPI Report
The December CPI Report came out an hour ago and the market is gyrating wildly as it tries to interpret it and price it in. The somewhat technical blog I wrote yesterday about headline vs core vs “supercore” CPI is…
CPI Wonks Are Focused On The “Supercore”
I apologize in advance if this blog makes your head explode. But apparently it is no longer enough to focus on the headline CPI or even core CPI. CPI wonks are focused on the “supercore” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED] ahead of tomorrow…
Tuesday Morning Rundown
There’s not a lot going on this morning but I’ll touch on a few things to keep an eye on. The most important event this week is the December CPI on Thursday morning at 8:30am EST. In this morning’s WSJ,…
Thursday’s CPI Could Be A Bear Killer
Here are the headline CPI numbers for the first 11 months of 2022: November 2022: 7.1% October 2022: 7.7% September 2022: 8.2% August 2022: 8.3% July 2022: 8.5% June 2022: 9.1% May 2022: 8.6% April 2022: 8.3% March 2022: 8.5%…