Fed And Market Play Chicken
There is an article coming on the front page of Friday’s WSJ that you are going to want to read (“Markets, Fed Split On Rate Forecasts”, Timiraos and Otani [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]). As you can see in the graph above from…
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An Analysis Of The DEC22 CPI Report
The December CPI Report came out an hour ago and the market is gyrating wildly as it tries to interpret it and price it in. The somewhat technical blog I wrote yesterday about headline vs core vs “supercore” CPI is…
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CPI Wonks Are Focused On The “Supercore”
I apologize in advance if this blog makes your head explode. But apparently it is no longer enough to focus on the headline CPI or even core CPI. CPI wonks are focused on the “supercore” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED] ahead of tomorrow…
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Tuesday Morning Rundown
There’s not a lot going on this morning but I’ll touch on a few things to keep an eye on. The most important event this week is the December CPI on Thursday morning at 8:30am EST. In this morning’s WSJ,…
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Thursday’s CPI Could Be A Bear Killer
Here are the headline CPI numbers for the first 11 months of 2022: November 2022: 7.1% October 2022: 7.7% September 2022: 8.2% August 2022: 8.3% July 2022: 8.5% June 2022: 9.1% May 2022: 8.6% April 2022: 8.3% March 2022: 8.5%…
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Market Preview Week of Jan 9-13
Next week is the start of the 4Q22 earnings season and the December CPI Report is on Thursday morning. In addition, KB Homes (KBH) will report earnings for its quarter ended November 30, 2022 Wednesday afternoon which will give us…
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The Market Is (Incorrectly) Priced For A Soft Landing
At the end of 2021 I said that inflation would be the theme of 2022. In 2023 everybody will be saying the R word: recession. While inflation has been mostly tamed by the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking, the market hasn’t…
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Preview: Week of Dec 12-16
Next week is the last with significant data and events of 2022. First comes the November CPI Report on Tuesday December 13 at 8:30am EST. As long as it isn’t above October’s 7.7% I think the market should be fine….
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A Look Back At Next Year
ANOTHER BEAR MARKET RALLY: The stock market has rallied nicely the last couple of months and once again the bulls are saying the bottom is in. It isn’t. Like March and August this is another bear market rally – though…
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The Roadmap Into Year End
As we enter the holiday season into year end there will be less data to move markets and seasonality historically plays a significant role. Next week the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday November 24 and there…
