The much anticipated September CPI Report came out this morning before the market opened hotter than expected. The CPI increased 8.2% year over year and 0.4% month over month – above expectations. The Futures were up big before the report…
On Friday morning the BLS reported that the US economy added 263,000 jobs in September – a solid report. But the S&P dropped 2.80% and the NASDAQ 3.80%. Why? Because we are once again in the “bad news is good…
I’m not trying to scare anybody but I have a premonition that something is about to break. The relentless move higher in the dollar and the ten year treasury yield is tightening global financial conditions on a daily basis. The…
The stock market rallied hard from last Wednesday through Monday in anticipation of a soft inflation print that would allow the Fed to start to pivot from its hawkish stance. All the real world price data suggests inflation is rolling…
When I started Top Gun – before Nick Timiraos assumed the post of Fed Whisperer – that role was filled by Jon Hilsenrath. That’s why Hilsenrath’s piece in this morning’s WSJ is worth scrutinizing for clues about the Fed’s strategy…
The stock market has suffered a nasty correction in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole two weeks ago. While the Fed is right that letting inflation linger would be a grave mistake they could also…
We’re a CPI Report away from Jackson Hole being peak hawkish – Rob Crumpton, Stocktwits, Friday September 2 6:23am PST Rob Crumpton had a great tweet on Stocktwits Friday morning. While everybody is in a panic over Fed Chairman Powell’s…
Two weeks ago people were talking about the end of the bear market and a new bull market. Now – after Powell’s speech – the narrative has completely reversed course and most seem to be expecting new lows imminently. In…
On Friday morning Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much awaited speech in Jackson Hole, WY to lecture the market like a father whose teenage son took the car without permission. Powell was clearly annoyed by the market’s presumption in…
The rally off the June lows is premised on the following argument: Inflation is peaking; therefore the Fed will slow the pace of its rate hikes; which will ease the pressure on risk assets. But the market had some doubts…