Sticky Inflation And The Neutral Rate
I just filled up my gas tank and it was over $5/gallon. This is just another example of sticky inflation: Inflation may not be going up as fast as it was a couple years ago but prices are still quite…
I just filled up my gas tank and it was over $5/gallon. This is just another example of sticky inflation: Inflation may not be going up as fast as it was a couple years ago but prices are still quite…
As markets have digested the slightly hotter than expected February CPI on Tuesday morning, the idea of sticky inflation has started to take hold and the debate about the timing of the first rate cut pushed back to June. A…
At the end of his long life, Charlie Munger expressed doubts about the future of value investing: I think that the modern investors, to get ahead, almost has to get in a few stocks that are way above average. They…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield…
Fed Chair Powell sent interest rates soaring and tanked the stock market Thursday when he continued to press his “higher for longer” narrative at the Economic Club of New York. He doesn’t seem to understand that it’s time to change…
One result of the relentless rise in interest rates – which reversed a bit last week – is that the Fed is now on pause and likely done with its rate hiking campaign. Fed Futures are pricing in a 94%…
On August 24, I argued in “The Bear Market Rally Is Over” that the outperformance of The Magnificent 7 was masking weak overall market internals and that the bear market was over. About a month later on September 20, the…
In the wake of the Fed’s “hawkish pause” Wednesday, in which they paused their interest rate hiking campaign but said they may still hike one more time this year and increased their forecast for the Fed Funds rate at the…
[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed…
I have been writing a lot about individual stocks in recent weeks but for the next few weeks macro will take center stage leading up to the Fed Decision on Wednesday March 22. As you can see in the chart…