Recession = Smaller Boobs?
“… during the last month of the quarter, we did start to see the beginning of some softening in demand and the channel research that we did and the studies that we conducted say that some plastic surgeons were starting…
“… during the last month of the quarter, we did start to see the beginning of some softening in demand and the channel research that we did and the studies that we conducted say that some plastic surgeons were starting…
“We are taking a more cautious view on the consumer finance stocks as the serial negative economic news suggests that the risk of a consumer recession is all but certain, in our view.” – Merrill Lynch analysts, in a report…
Goldman today upped its probability forecast for a recession in 2008 from 30% to 40%-45%. Top Gun also updated our extremely complex, computerized, mathematical, algorithimic, dynamic stochastic, recession model and upped our recession probability from 99.999998% to 99.999999%. Look: I…
“As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we are doing so with a heightened sense of caution due to our belief that the overall macro environment is having a greater impact on retail traffic than we previously anticipated.” –…
(In conjunction with this post, also read the one from last week on Winnebago, especially the quote from Ron Muhlenkamp at the top). As expected, since they preannounced weak results in early September, Harley Davidson (HOG) reported a weak 3rd…
Here are Target’s (TGT) monthly same store sales comps for the last year (Target Releases): Sept 07 1.2% Aug 07 6.1% Jul 07 6.1% Jun 07 3.3% May 07 5.8% Mar and Apr 07 3.0% (See this post for why I’m…
“Motorcycles and motor homes are the kind of things that people think about before they buy. Nobody needs a Harley. They’re bought when people want ’em, so they’re poster boys for the economy.” – Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager, Muhlenkamp Fund,…
Historically, real disposable personal income has been the dominant factor driving consumer spending. As long as businesses maintain employment, and wages continue to rise, reflecting tight labor markets, rising personal income will outweigh the negative impacts of declining home prices,…
There was an article in Barron’s this weekend that resonates with my view of what’s going on in housing and how it will play out in the coming years including its effects on the overall economy. The article, “Getting Ready…
Everyday I try to discern the “message of the markets” by looking at the performance of the various sectors: financials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, technology, energy, basic materials, industrials, health care and utilties. Checking up on the sectors today revealed…