Macro Economics Archive

Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong

The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  No Comments »

Rethinking My S&P Price Target Under Civilizational Breakdown

The more I think about, the more inclined I am to think that we are heading for Civilization Breakdown, due to the collapse of the dollar as a medium of exchange, like Germany in the ...
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The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown

Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST: 14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  2 Comments »

The Evolving Late Stage Bull Market

Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018.  Digging a little deeper, he ...
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The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression

The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated - Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% ...
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Why This Bull Market Could Be On Its Last Legs

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 0.25%-0.50%.  Since then, markets have soared as investors celebrate the continuation of easy money.  However, the Fed also fairly clearly telegraphed a rate ...
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Some Caveats On The Retail Recession

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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Retail Recession

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  No Comments »

Living On Borrowed Time

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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How To Play A Stock Market Bubble

NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the ...
Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  1 Comment »