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Macro Economics

Happy New Year – But 2023 Is Going To Really Suck FYI

Happy New Year – But 2023 Is Going To Really Suck FYI

January 5, 2023 Reading Time: 2 minutes

With the NASDAQ having lost ~30% of its value from its November 2021 peak I suspect that many investors think the bottom is near. However everything I’m seeing suggests to me that it’s not. Wednesday’s announcement from Salesforce (CRM) that…

Read More Happy New Year – But 2023 Is Going To Really Suck FYIContinue

What Does CAG’s Big Quarter Mean?

What Does CAG’s Big Quarter Mean?

January 5, 2023 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Conagra Foods (CAG) – maker of frozen foods like Marie Calendar’s and Healthy Choice – is one of the most boring stocks in the market. But they just reported monster numbers for their quarter ended November 27, 2022. What does…

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The Market Is (Incorrectly) Priced For A Soft Landing

The Market Is (Incorrectly) Priced For A Soft Landing

December 27, 2022 Reading Time: 3 minutes

At the end of 2021 I said that inflation would be the theme of 2022. In 2023 everybody will be saying the R word: recession. While inflation has been mostly tamed by the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking, the market hasn’t…

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Something Is Happening In Japan

Something Is Happening In Japan

December 21, 2022 Reading Time: 3 minutes

I am by no means an expert on the Japanese economy but for a decade or so some big name investors – like Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass who made his name forecasting the 2008 crash – have been awaiting a…

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Preview: Week Of Dec 19-23

Preview: Week Of Dec 19-23

December 17, 2022 Reading Time: 4 minutes

While the calendar slows down dramatically heading into the last two weeks of 2022 there are a few earnings reports worth paying attention to next week: Federal Express (FDX), Nike (NKE) and Micron (MU). Let’s start with FDX which reports…

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Sniffing Out A Fed Pivot…. Again

Sniffing Out A Fed Pivot…. Again

October 22, 2022 Reading Time: 4 minutes

Stocks rallied Friday as The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos penned a column suggesting that the Fed may be close to pivoting to a less hawkish stance. Timiraos suggested that – while the Fed will raise another 75 points on November…

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KMX: Consumers Are Scrapping Discretionary Purchases

KMX: Consumers Are Scrapping Discretionary Purchases

September 29, 2022 Reading Time: 2 minutes

Leading used car retailer CarMax (KMX) reported 3Q22 earnings for the period ended August 31 Thursday morning. Used vehicle sales units declined 6.4% year over year to 216,939 after consumers couldn’t get their hands on enough cars during the pandemic….

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Interpreting FDX: Company Specific Or Macro Canary?

Interpreting FDX: Company Specific Or Macro Canary?

September 23, 2022 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Federal Express (FDX) preannounced disastrous earnings last Thursday afternoon and filled in the specifics yesterday when it reported the actual numbers. As you can see in the chart above FDX was apparently doing just fine – including a nice bump…

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FDX: The Global Economy Is Rolling Over

FDX: The Global Economy Is Rolling Over

September 16, 2022 Reading Time: 4 minutes

Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US – Raj Subramaniam, CEO Federal Express (FDX) Federal Express (FDX) – an economic bellwether – issued a warning Thursday afternoon after the…

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BBY Earnings Show Consumer Tightening Up

BBY Earnings Show Consumer Tightening Up

August 30, 2022 Reading Time: 2 minutes

Best Buy (BBY) is a favorite stock of mine as a window into consumer spending because it sells discretionary items. Almost all of its sales come from computing, mobile phones, electronics and appliances. Its 2Q22 earnings report Tuesday morning clearly…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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