June 7, 2025 2Q25 Letter To Investors Mistakes of the First 18 Years And The Maturation of My Game 7 months ago I moved from the Bay Area to Davis to escape the fast pace and stress of the big…
For the last two months I’ve been trying to determine if the rally initially spurred by Trump pausing the Liberation Day tariffs by 90 days on April 9 represents a continuation of the long bull market or a bear market…
In “The State of the Market After Wednesday’s Historic Face Ripper” (Wednesday April 9, Top Gun Financial), I argued that it was a mistake to view that day’s action as an “all clear” signal because the market had been struggling…
Not many people know that Adam Smith’s primary target in The Wealth of Nations was Mercantilism, the reigning economic theory of the time. He called his book “an attack on the whole commercial system of modern Europe”. Mercantilism was focused…
Almost 100 years after the start of The Great Depression there is still a lot of debate about what caused it and why it lasted so long. But it’s almost certain that The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs and bad monetary policy played…
Talk about the probability of a recession has increased of late as stocks have gotten hit. Mark Zandi puts it at 35%. Jeff Gundlach thinks it’s higher than 50%. One thing I was taught is an important indicator of a…
The stock market got smashed to open September after the long Labor Day weekend. The S&P was -2.12% and the NASDAQ -3.26%. Nvidia (NVDA) led the way, dropping almost 10% as news that the DOJ is investigating it for antitrust…
Earlier this month news broke that Berkshire Hathaway had acquired a position in beaten down retailer Ulta Beauty (ULTA). The stock soared the next day in reaction but it’s coming back to earth this morning after a weak earnings report…
McDonald’s (MCD) reported earnings early Monday morning and the results suggest the economy is rolling over into recession. Comps have been decelerating for a year now and went negative in 2Q24. US Comps were -0.7% compared to +10.3% a year…
The S&P surged 64 points (1.26%) on Friday to 5,128 – right up to its 50 DMA (5,130). The 50 DMA continues to serve as resistance and the S&P continues to trade in a range (4950 – 5250) defined by…