Macro Economics Archive
The Hallmark of a Bubble, The Long Term Consequences of Massive Government Stimulus and Bank Earnings
October 14, 2020 · Category: Everything Bubble, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Government, History, Howard Marks, Inflation, Interest Rates, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Short Selling, Stocks, The Big 5
Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday's memo, "Coming ...
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The Great Disconnect and The Fed Put
June 25, 2020 · Category: Everything Bubble, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Gold, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Real Estate, Sentiment Analysis, Stocks
Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on ...
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America on the Brink
June 4, 2020 · Category: China, Coronavirus, Everything Bubble, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Politics, Race Riots, Sentiment Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol ...
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Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong
April 5, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Federal Reserve, History, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Philosophy, Top Gun Financial Planning
The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
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Rethinking My S&P Price Target Under Civilizational Breakdown
March 31, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Deflation, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Top Gun Financial Planning
The more I think about, the more inclined I am to think that we are heading for Civilization Breakdown, due to the collapse of the dollar as a medium of exchange, like Germany in the ...
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The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown
March 19, 2020 · Category: Books, China, Coronavirus, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Silicon Valley
Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST:
14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · 2 Comments »
The Evolving Late Stage Bull Market
October 31, 2019 · Category: Apple, Facebook, Fundamental Analysis, Google, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Stocks, Top Gun Financial Planning
Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018. Digging a little deeper, he ...
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The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression
January 6, 2019 · Category: Apple, China, Federal Reserve, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Top Gun Financial Planning
The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated - Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management
The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% ...
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Why This Bull Market Could Be On Its Last Legs
September 22, 2016 · Category: Economics, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Macro Economics, Top Gun Financial Planning
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 0.25%-0.50%. Since then, markets have soared as investors celebrate the continuation of easy money. However, the Fed also fairly clearly telegraphed a rate ...
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Some Caveats On The Retail Recession
May 16, 2016 · Category: Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Stocks, Technical Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
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