Happy New Year – But 2023 Is Going To Really Suck FYI

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With the NASDAQ having lost ~30% of its value from its November 2021 peak I suspect that many investors think the bottom is near. However everything I’m seeing suggests to me that it’s not.

Wednesday’s announcement from Salesforce (CRM) that it will be reducing its 80,000 employee workforce by about 10% is just the latest. Facebook (META) already told us they will be reducing their headcount by about 13% or more than 11,000. And Amazon’s (AMZN) layoffs will be higher than previously announced, now expected to come in at just over 18,000.

These are not the sorts of things you see at the end of a downturn. In fact what they show is that these big corporations are battening down the hatches in anticipation of more hard times ahead. My best guess is that the NASDAQ will lose another 20% in 2023 placing it around 8,000 – a 50% haircut from its November 2021 high. If the Fed has any sense, it will stop hiking rates immediately.

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