Shades of 1999
In a must watch interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning, legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones compared the current environment to 1999. PTJ is a trader and his primary reason for saying so is “flows”. What he means by that…
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Premonitions of a Major Market Top
I dropped out of the Phd Philosophy program at UC Davis to start Top Gun in 2006 in order to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent recession that I foresaw. Indeed, the market topped in…
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A Juggernaut Stock That Just Went On Sale
If you live on one of the coasts like me, you probably aren’t familiar with Casey’s General Stores (CASY) which owns almost 3,000 convenience stores and gas stations in the middle of the country. But as an investor you want…
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DKS Disastrous Day: The Foot Locker Acquisition Is Undoing The Stock
Yesterday (Tuesday) I wrote about a lazy trade I made on Monday. After a three day vacation from the market playing poker, working out and reading books in Rohnert Park, I was anxious to jump back in. Unfortunately, my over…
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Why My DKS Trade Failed
One of my core beliefs is that mistakes are the royal road to growth and improvement. While painful, analyzing one’s mistakes is the best way to learn hard lessons that will take you to the next level. Unfortunately, you never…
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TPR: Applying The Perennial Strategy
Tapestry (TPR) – the maker of Coach and Kate Spade purses for women – reported 4QFY26 earnings this morning. While the numbers looked good to me, the market has sent shares down 17% at the open. This gives us an…
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Revisiting The Health Insurers A Year After The Buffett Bottom
On August 19, 2025 I wrote a blog titled “A Better Way To Play The Buffett Bottom In The Health Insurers”. Buffett had been accumulating a large position that the SEC had given him permission not to disclose. When Berkshire…
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CAG Is One Of The Cheapest Stocks In The Market Ahead of Earnings Wed Morning; How I’m Playing It
Conagra (CAG), the food manufacturer, is one of the cheapest stocks in the market ahead of its 4QFY26 earnings report Wednesday morning. In fact, due its declining market cap, the stock was removed from the S&P 500 two weeks ago…
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Patience vs Stubbornness: The Case of the NKE Turnaround
I was listening to the Nike (NKE) conference call about an hour ago, waiting for them to give their next quarter revenue guidance. When the CFO forecast a low to mid single digit decline and said that the revenue inflection…
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The Limits of the P/E Ratio and Why MU & SNDK Are Not Cheap
One of the most common and misleading stock market metrics is the Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Value investors frequently focus on this metric in their search for cheap stocks. Indeed, too many investors put too much emphasis on…
