Market Commentary Archive
A Tale of Two Stock Markets – The Internet Economy Versus The Real World Economy
August 2, 2020 · Category: Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Sentiment Analysis, Short Selling, The Big 5, Top Gun Financial Planning
We are, and have been, in a secular shift away from physical living towards online. I recently read a tweet that said COVID-19 has massively accelerated this trend. Earnings reports from the last couple of ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Great Disconnect and The Fed Put
June 25, 2020 · Category: Everything Bubble, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Gold, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Real Estate, Sentiment Analysis, Stocks
Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Top Is Probably In
June 10, 2020 · Category: Big 5, Federal Reserve, History, Market Commentary, Stocks, Technical Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
Let's flashback to March 2000 when the Dot.com Bubble topped. The NASDAQ closed above 5,000 twice - Thursday 3/9 and Friday 3/10. And that was it. Today, the NASDAQ closed above 10,000 for the first ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
America on the Brink
June 4, 2020 · Category: China, Coronavirus, Everything Bubble, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Politics, Race Riots, Sentiment Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong
April 5, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Federal Reserve, History, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Philosophy, Top Gun Financial Planning
The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown
March 19, 2020 · Category: Books, China, Coronavirus, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Silicon Valley
Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST:
14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · 2 Comments »
The Evolving Late Stage Bull Market
October 31, 2019 · Category: Apple, Facebook, Fundamental Analysis, Google, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Stocks, Top Gun Financial Planning
Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018. Digging a little deeper, he ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression
January 6, 2019 · Category: Apple, China, Federal Reserve, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Top Gun Financial Planning
The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated - Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management
The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Confessions of a Frustrated Fund Manager
NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Some Caveats On The Retail Recession
May 16, 2016 · Category: Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Stocks, Technical Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
