Shades of 1999
In a must watch interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning, legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones compared the current environment to 1999. PTJ is a trader and his primary reason for saying so is “flows”. What he means by that…
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The Return of the Bond Vigilantes
I used to think that if there was reincarnation I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can…
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2Q26 Client Update
After our terrific year last year, I was hoping for more of the same in 2026. And while we got off to a good start in 1Q26, we didn’t make much progress in 2Q26. That’s because the market is increasingly…
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The Contradiction at the Heart of the Market
Let’s start with some context. The current bull market is being driven by optimism about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The premise is that AI will radically improve economic productivity resulting in a massive economic boom. It began on the afternoon of…
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The Limits of the P/E Ratio and Why MU & SNDK Are Not Cheap
One of the most common and misleading stock market metrics is the Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Value investors frequently focus on this metric in their search for cheap stocks. Indeed, too many investors put too much emphasis on…
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Trump Is Dangerous and That’s Not Good For Stocks – Or More Importantly World Order
There is something not at all right when the weightiest decisions of a democratic republic depend so much on the mood of one man – Peggy Noonan, “A Republic, Not A Mood” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ Saturday April 4 The world…
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The Market Is Cracking
The S&P 500 closed just 9 points above its 200 DMA on Wednesday – a level it hasn’t traded below since mid-May 2025. The Magnificent 7 that have led this bull market since October 2022 are -8.73% YTD. The Equal…
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The Permabulls and Iran
On Monday, the market proved Michael Burry’s claim that this is the greatest buy the dip generation in history. Unconcerned with all the unknowns about how the situation in Iran will play out, the permabulls bought the opening dip and…
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Beneath The Surface The Market Is Showing Signs Of A Top
While the S&P is only about 2% off its all time highs, beneath the surface the market is showing signs of a top. Warren Pies tweeted today that there have only been two other times when Consumer Staples and Energy…
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Data Center REITs Are A Conservative Way To Play AI
The WSJ’s Dan Gallagher wrote an excellent overview of the recent tech stock market on Tuesday (“Picks and Shovels Still Rule The AI Tech Trade” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]): Investors are choosing the companies on the receiving end of big tech’s spending…
