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Market Commentary

The Best Bet Is That The Economy – And Market – Will Muddle Through

The Best Bet Is That The Economy – And Market – Will Muddle Through

June 2, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

For the last two months I’ve been trying to determine if the rally initially spurred by Trump pausing the Liberation Day tariffs by 90 days on April 9 represents a continuation of the long bull market or a bear market…

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Reasons For Concern: Interest Rates, Tariffs, Valuation

Reasons For Concern: Interest Rates, Tariffs, Valuation

May 26, 2025 Reading Time: 5 minutes

The market was cruising along until a weak 20 year treasury auction in the middle of the day Wednesday sent interest rates soaring and stocks stumbling. Early Friday President Trump spooked markets once again by calling for a 50% tariff…

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The Market Appears Unstoppable But Is It?

The Market Appears Unstoppable But Is It?

May 19, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Even a downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s couldn’t derail the current momentum in the stock market Monday as the S&P clawed back all of the 60 points it lost at the open plus 5. The technicals have…

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Why I Suspect This Is A Bear Market Rally

Why I Suspect This Is A Bear Market Rally

May 5, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

I have been going back and forth over the last week or two: Bear Market Rally or Correction In An Ongoing Bull Market? In the wake of the strong bullish reaction to Google’s (GOOG/GOOGL) 1Q25 earnings report on Thursday April…

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The Market Is Ahead Of Itself; PLTR Earnings Monday

The Market Is Ahead Of Itself; PLTR Earnings Monday

May 3, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

The market has recouped all of its losses suffered in the wake of Liberation Day. It looks like a V-bottom but I’m skeptical for a couple of reasons. One, there is still tremendous uncertainty about the outcome of the trade…

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Good Not Great Mag 7 Earnings May Not Be Enough To Sustain Market Rally

Good Not Great Mag 7 Earnings May Not Be Enough To Sustain Market Rally

May 1, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Wednesday night I suggested that 5,650 might be the limit for the S&P if the recent bounce is in fact a bear market rally. And that’s exactly how things played out in Thursday’s session with the S&P reaching a high…

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This Is Where Things Get Interesting

This Is Where Things Get Interesting

May 1, 2025 Reading Time: 5 minutes

It’s been quite a rally the last few weeks as Trump has walked back the outrageous tariffs he announced on Liberation Day and 4 of The Magnificent 7 have reported solid earnings over the last week. 5,500 represents a significant…

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GOOG Earnings, Breakout Pending, 1998 Analogy

GOOG Earnings, Breakout Pending, 1998 Analogy

April 25, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

Google (GOOG/GOOGL) reported 1Q25 earnings after the close Thursday. I think Gene Munster is right in characterizing the quarter as “good but not great” as Search Revenue growth continues to decelerate. Nevertheless, with the stock beat down over the last…

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Bull or Bear? CMG Earnings, Gold Reversal

Bull or Bear? CMG Earnings, Gold Reversal

April 24, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

Obviously uncertainty is extremely high at the moment and so is the question of whether the market has bottomed or the powerful rally the last two days represents a bear market rally. From the standpoint of technical analysis, it is…

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The Bessent Bottom and The Art of the Deal

The Bessent Bottom and The Art of the Deal

April 23, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

About an hour ago, the news broke that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of investors at a JP Morgan event in Washington DC that he foresaw de-escalation of the current trade tension with China as the situation was…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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