The war makes inflation more intractable – Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, TS Lombard (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed Wrestles With The Challenge Of How Quickly To Raise Interest Rates” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ A1, Tuesday 3/15). The Fed is highly…
After a correction in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, interest rates have resumed their uptrend with the 10 year treasury yield jumping 14 basis points to a 52-week high of 2.14% Monday. As I’ve discussed many times of…
With inflation raging, the monthly CPI Report has replaced the Jobs Report as the government economic number with the most impact. Let’s take a look at the state of the market heading into the February CPI Report Thursday morning at…
Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are currently +5%. Britain’s FTSE and US Futures are +2%. It’s looking like today is going to be a face ripper of a bear market rally. However, this does not mean the bottom is in….
As the NASDAQ chops around between 13,000 and 14,000 as I suggested it would during last Friday’s session in “A Countertrend Rally” ahead of Friday morning’s February Jobs Report at 8:30am EST, my attention is turning to Russia and the…
I want to write about market structure this morning because there are a lot of crosscurrents that are useful to understand. The first point I want to make is that the primary trend is still down. Due to inflation that…
What investors have been fretting about finally happened: Russia invaded Ukraine Wednesday night. Bears have been correct in saying that we won’t see even an intermediate bottom until there is real fear – and we haven’t seen it yet. Well,…
As I wrote this morning in the context of Shopify (SHOP), the market is bifurcated into the mega cap tech stocks that have held up well so far – and thus propped up the indexes – and the smaller but…
Thursday’s session was a roller coaster. It started out with a hotter than expected January CPI Report at 8:30am EST. The stock market initially gapped down but rallied back to breakeven in about an hour – though the yield on…
Stocks had a furious rally the last three days of the holiday shortened week. On Thursday, the S&P was +0.62% to 4,726 (a new all time high), the NASDAQ was +0.85% and the Russell +0.89%. I don’t want to be…