The Roadmap Ahead: Taking Inflation’s Measure
Ahead of the important March CPI this morning it seems like a good time to take a look at the road ahead for the next bunch of weeks. The first thing is that the rally off the March 14 lows…
Price Is A Liar
When I wrote “Fade The Rally” two weeks ago it was not a popular view. Technicians were wondering if a major bottom had been put in place. Two big down days in the NASDAQ later and they are starting to…
Fade Elon’s “Billionaire Retail Therapy”
First off let me say that I love Twitter (TWTR). I find it to be a terrific platform for following smart and insightful people as well as sharing my own ideas. However, I don’t believe Elon Musk’s investment in the…
The Dumbest Day In Stock Market History
When we see money piling into stocks or sectors strictly because they are going up, because speculative traders see the possibility of profit by jumping on a trend. This is momentum investment on steroids, when speculators see a trend and…
The Analogy To The Bear Market Rally Spring 2008
There is a lot of debate about the interpretation of the current rally. Is it the start of a new bull market? Or is it a relief rally in an ongoing bear market? My view is the latter but let’s…
Bulls Push Stocks Higher But Surging Interest Rates Are A Red Flag
Bulls pushed the NASDAQ up another 1.98% this week but the rally is on shaky footing in my opinion. Most importantly, interest rates continued to surge higher Friday with the 10 year yield adding 15 basis points to 2.49%. As…
Fade The Rally
Monday after the close I suggested that the NASDAQ’s rally off last week’s lows might be petering out due to rising interest rates and resistance at the 50 DMA. Tuesday’s 1.95% rise in the NASDAQ combined with the continued rise…
Rising Interest Rates Are A Massive Headwind
Last week’s relief rally was a face ripper. QQQ was +10.5% and ARKK +25.8% in four days (Tue-Fri). That likely caused a lot of shorts to cover and pulled a lot of longs back into the market relieving extremely oversold…
Is The Bottom In?
The powerful three day rally from Tuesday through Thursday has generated a lot of excitement and speculation that the bottom may be in. The NASDAQ is up more than 1,000 points (8%) over that span. Grant Hawkridge tweeted a nice…
Bulls Have The Ball And The Burden Of Proof
Two powerful rallies from oversold conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday have put the bulls back in control and a consolidation day Thursday – by which I mean a decline of less than 1% in the NASDAQ – wouldn’t change that….