Macro Economics Archive
Small Cap Mania, Extreme Bullishness, The $ At Support
November 24, 2020 · Category: Blogs, Business and Investment Philosophy, Currencies, Inflation, Interest Rates, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Sentiment Analysis, Technical Analysis, Twitter
Note: To sign up to be alerted when the morning email is posted to my website, enter your name and email in the box in the right hand corner titled “New Post Announcements”. That will ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Likely Narrative Through Year End, The Bear Market Rally of 1929-30, Historic Overvaluation
November 23, 2020 · Category: Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, History, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Seasonality, Stocks, Technical Analysis
The vaccine announcement has given bullish investors a put option - Jim Paulsen, CIO, The Leuthold Group on "The Vaccine Put", quoted in Ben Levishon, Barron's, The Trader Column, November 21, 2020
For the last 6 weeks ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Interpreting the Disconnect Between Earnings and Stock Prices: The Cases of DIS & MCD
November 13, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Howard Marks, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Ray Dalio, Stocks, Technical Analysis
Note: A few months ago I started writing a daily morning market email for clients, friends and family. I recently decided to start making this email more broadly available. Email me at gfeirman@topgunfp.com if you’d ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Hallmark of a Bubble, The Long Term Consequences of Massive Government Stimulus and Bank Earnings
October 14, 2020 · Category: Everything Bubble, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Government, History, Howard Marks, Inflation, Interest Rates, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Short Selling, Stocks, The Big 5
Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday's memo, "Coming ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Great Disconnect and The Fed Put
June 25, 2020 · Category: Everything Bubble, Federal Reserve, Fundamental Analysis, Gold, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Real Estate, Sentiment Analysis, Stocks
Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
America on the Brink
June 4, 2020 · Category: China, Coronavirus, Everything Bubble, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Politics, Race Riots, Sentiment Analysis, Top Gun Financial Planning
George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong
April 5, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Federal Reserve, History, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Philosophy, Top Gun Financial Planning
The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
Rethinking My S&P Price Target Under Civilizational Breakdown
March 31, 2020 · Category: Coronavirus, Deflation, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Top Gun Financial Planning
The more I think about, the more inclined I am to think that we are heading for Civilization Breakdown, due to the collapse of the dollar as a medium of exchange, like Germany in the ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown
March 19, 2020 · Category: Books, China, Coronavirus, History, Inflation, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Silicon Valley
Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST:
14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · 2 Comments »
The Evolving Late Stage Bull Market
October 31, 2019 · Category: Apple, Facebook, Fundamental Analysis, Google, Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Stocks, Top Gun Financial Planning
Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018. Digging a little deeper, he ...
Posted by Greg Feirman · No Comments »
