Macro Economics Archive

Small Cap Mania, Extreme Bullishness, The $ At Support

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The Likely Narrative Through Year End, The Bear Market Rally of 1929-30, Historic Overvaluation

The vaccine announcement has given bullish investors a put option - Jim Paulsen, CIO, The Leuthold Group on "The Vaccine Put", quoted in Ben Levishon, Barron's, The Trader Column, November 21, 2020 For the last 6 weeks ...
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Interpreting the Disconnect Between Earnings and Stock Prices: The Cases of DIS & MCD

Note: A few months ago I started writing a daily morning market email for clients, friends and family. I recently decided to start making this email more broadly available. Email me at gfeirman@topgunfp.com if you’d ...
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The Hallmark of a Bubble, The Long Term Consequences of Massive Government Stimulus and Bank Earnings

Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday's memo, "Coming ...
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The Great Disconnect and The Fed Put

Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we     are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on ...
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America on the Brink

George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol ...
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Understanding The Consensus View And Why It’s Wrong

The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven't already, and we'll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as ...
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Rethinking My S&P Price Target Under Civilizational Breakdown

The more I think about, the more inclined I am to think that we are heading for Civilization Breakdown, due to the collapse of the dollar as a medium of exchange, like Germany in the ...
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The Possibility of Civilizational Breakdown

Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST: 14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note "The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression" (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what ...
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The Evolving Late Stage Bull Market

Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018.  Digging a little deeper, he ...
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