Everybody knows that December is one of the best months of the year from a seasonality perspective. And with the Federal Reserve on pause, the consensus for a year end rally is almost universal. The S&P is only 40 points…
I probably sound like a broken record but it’s a tale of two markets: Big Tech and all the rest. Nvidia (NVDA) reported a monster quarter Tuesday after the close and will be the focus of Wednesday’s session. Revenue of…
The better than expected October CPI last Tuesday morning has ended the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. As you can see in the Fed Futures Probabilities charts above, the market is placing no chance of anything other than a pause at…
In my weekly preview, I wrote about my “Long WMT/Short HD” position and I continue to like that trade despite the action in the stocks post earnings. HD bounced after reporting earnings Tuesday mornings but only because the stock was…
On Tuesday morning, the October CPI came in below expectations (0.0% headline, 0.2% core) leading to an explosive move higher in stocks and bonds. The rationale is that with inflation now apparently under control, the Fed no longer has any…
Despite the huge bounce last week I continue to believe that we’re still in the bear market that began in November 2021. That’s because the Magnificent 7 – the mega cap tech stocks – are the only stocks really performing…
I have written a lot about how the Magnificent 7 are holding up the market cap weighted indexes while beneath the surface many smaller stocks have broken down (“The Market Is About To Break”, October 3). My point has been…
Last week was an important week as the market cap weighted S&P and NASDAQ both broke below their 200 DMAs. It was something I’d been expecting given the underlying internal weakness in the market for quite some time now (“The…
On Wednesday night I said that “The Bull Market Has Been Canceled” because the Big Tech stocks that had been holding up the market were starting to fail. The smaller stocks in the S&P and Russell 2000 had already broken…
Any weakness in [Big Tech’s earnings reports] could be the catalyst for the market weight S&P to decisively break below its 200 DMA which I’ve been forecasting for three weeks now – “Market Technicals Heading Into Big Tech Earnings”, Top…