Revisiting My Freeport McMoran (FCX) Call

The stock has run, but nothing unusual.  It barely made a 52 week high with copper prices at all time highs and the company is executing.  The stock is undervalued.

– slim1216, comment on SeekingAlpha, April 24, 2008

This is the time to get on board, not jump ship.

– stephen rosenman, comment on SeekingAlpha, April 24, 2008

FCX is undervalued here simply on copper valuations….. We might take some short-term licks since most, like you, fail to truly grasp the situation.  But the stock will continue to vastly outperform the market…

– auminer, comment on SeekingAlpha, April 25, 2008

Wow, that certainly is one contrarian view you got going there….. If your short is to find a few bucks, yeah, that can happen, but if you looking for a big down side move, then I think you are in for some pain.

– redrum, comment on SeekingAlpha, April 26, 2008

On April 23, 2008 I wrote a post titled “Freeport Valuation Bloated Here”:

I think there’s a very thin margin of error here and if copper prices come down, Freeport will get hammered.

It’s had a great run but I can’t help thinking it has to come to an end.

At the time I wrote the post, Freeport was at $118.  Interestingly, of the 8 commenters on the post at SeekingAlpha, every single one of them was skeptical and critical of my call.

Today, 3 1/2 months later, Freeport is getting crushed on heavy volume down to around $80 – a 32% drop in the 3 1/2 months since I put up the post (FCX 6 Month Chart). 

I covered our short position today.

Disclosure: Top Gun has no position in Freeport McMoran (FCX) shares.