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The State of the Market; The Debate Over Interest Rates; Gold Crash

The State of the Market; The Debate Over Interest Rates; Gold Crash

October 22, 2025 Reading Time: 6 minutes

The S&P continues to trade within the 200 point candle from Friday October 10th defined by 6750 on the topside and 6550 on the bottom. From a technical standpoint, until we breakout of that candle one way or the other…

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Stoicism Versus Buddhism On The Power And Limits Of The Mind

Stoicism Versus Buddhism On The Power And Limits Of The Mind

October 4, 2025 Reading Time: 9 minutes

In my first quarter at UC – San Diego in the Fall of 1995, my suitemates dragged me to a bookstore. At the time I was a washed up former athlete filled with anxiety and self doubt drifting aimlessly through…

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How To Navigate A Bubble II

How To Navigate A Bubble II

October 4, 2025 Reading Time: 7 minutes

It’s been two weeks now since I wrote “How To Navigate A Bubble”. Since then, the S&P has tacked on another 50 points – from 6,664 to 6,715. Market timing is notoriously difficult. So difficult, in fact, that many of…

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Patience Young Jedi: NKE Turnaround On Track

Patience Young Jedi: NKE Turnaround On Track

October 1, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Nike (NKE) reported decent 1QFY26 earnings after the close Tuesday. Let’s be clear: these weren’t blowout numbers. Turnarounds of this magnitude take time. But it was a step in the right direction. Currency neutral revenue declined a less than expected…

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AZO Is A Great Stock But Its Overvaluation Is Symptomatic Of The Market As A Whole

AZO Is A Great Stock But Its Overvaluation Is Symptomatic Of The Market As A Whole

September 23, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Autozone (AZO) is a great stock. It is a high quality business that has compounded earnings over time and the stock price has corroborated that. I have followed it closely for years and owned it from about $2000 to $3000….

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How To Navigate A Bubble

How To Navigate A Bubble

September 21, 2025 Reading Time: 9 minutes

There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well being and judgement as seeing a friend get rich – Charles Kindleberger On Friday, the S&P briefly hit 6,666 before closing the week at 6,664. That is up 10x or 1000% from…

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The Big Day Is Here: Understanding What The Markets Wants From The Fed

The Big Day Is Here: Understanding What The Markets Wants From The Fed

September 17, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

This is the strangest Fed Meeting in a long time according to the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. Trump failed in his bid to remove Lisa Cook from the meeting as an appeals court ruled 2-1 Monday night that she could attend….

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How And Why I Invest In Stocks Outside My Circle Of Competence

How And Why I Invest In Stocks Outside My Circle Of Competence

September 11, 2025 Reading Time: 9 minutes

One of the core principles of Warren Buffett’s value investing system is Circle of Competence. That is, only buy stocks whose business you understand. If you don’t understand a business, how can you analyze it and come to an estimate…

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Wild Days: ORCL +$200 Billion, 911,000 Disappearing Jobs, Thin Leadership = 9th Inning

Wild Days: ORCL +$200 Billion, 911,000 Disappearing Jobs, Thin Leadership = 9th Inning

September 10, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes

I am becoming increasingly concerned about the manic nature of this market. The latest is example is the reaction to Oracle (ORCL) earnings Tuesday afternoon. Revenue and Net Income were +12% and +8%, respectively. But there were a few wild…

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Is This The Top? Reflections On Cycles And Macro

Is This The Top? Reflections On Cycles And Macro

September 3, 2025 Reading Time: 9 minutes

The Perennial Philosophy in investing is to buy great companies and hold them for the long term. Buy right and sit tight. That is is how the big money is made in stocks. In fact, you don’t even have to…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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