Birinyi Goes Short Term Bullish

January 29, 2008 at 1:41 pm  ·  Category: Sentiment Analysis

CNBC’s NYSE floor reporter Bob Pisani has been reporting today that Laslo Birinyi, Forbes columnist and well followed market analyst, has gone short term bullish in a note released late night characterizing his position as “a churning market within a wide range but with an upward bias”.

In his most recent Forbes column, “Recessions and Bears”, written about two weeks ago it seems from the stock price quotes, the money quote is:

The bearish arguments for 2008 aren’t any more valid. Many bears expect a recession, which they assume is poison for market performance. Not quite. In the 11 recessions since World War II the market has averaged a 3% gain, despite the inclusion in that data set of the 23% decline in 1974. During 6 of those downturns the S&P went up. If 2008 is a recession year, it is not automatically fated to be bad for stocks [bold and italics added].

I’m still of the view that we got a ways more on the downside over the next year or two.

Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  Trackback URL  ·  Link
One Response to “Birinyi Goes Short Term Bullish”
  • The worst bear market was 1929 1332, 4 years. Large-cap stcoks lost about 80% of their value in that time. Another major bear market was 1973-1974, 2 years. Large-cap stcoks lost almost 40%of their value. Then 2000 2002, 3 years, large-cap stcoks lost about 35% of their value.These major bear markets occur approximately once per generation. They are characterized by a takover of inexperienced investors who bid up the prices of stcoks, creating a speculative bubble, which then bursts and results in a crash. I address this in chapter 5 of my book.The true enemy of the long-term investor is inflation, not market crashes. Portfolios can recover after a crash. But, inflation represents a permanent loss of purchasing power.To get a good overview of stock returns, download my free eBook and go straight to chapter 21. It will giver you a nicer primer on bear markets. Click on my profile and read my info to get the website. The book is in PDF format and available free to anyone.

    Sultan  ·  Dec 3, 2012 at 3:33 pm  ·  Permalink

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