Shades Of 1929
Almost 100 years after the start of The Great Depression there is still a lot of debate about what caused it and why it lasted so long. But it’s almost certain that The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs and bad monetary policy played…
XOM CVX Earnings And The Case For Oil Stocks
Investors today love tech. Tech is by far the biggest part of the market and it’s been the best performing for a long time. For those reasons, most investors tend to tune out the rest of the market. But that’s…
The Case For Defense Stocks Ahead Of 3Q Earnings
As we enter the 2nd full week of 3rd quarter earnings, one of my focuses will be the leading defense stocks – Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX), General Dynamics (GD) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) – all of which report next…
Defense Stocks Are A No Brainer
With two wars currently raging – Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine – and a third a concern – China/Taiwan – defense stocks make all the sense in the world. If nothing else, they could serve as a hedge in your portfolio against…
The Bearish Case Has Rarely Been Stronger
While the S&P is near all time highs it might surprise you to know that the bearish case has rarely been stronger during my almost 20-year career in the business. In this blog I’m going to lay out a bunch…
Gold Hedges Against More Than Just Inflation
For most of my professional investment career beginning in 2007, I’ve been a gold bull. Having studied the work of the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises in college, I early understood the fundamental role monetary policy plays in the…
The Soft Landing Narrative And Its Critics, Argentina Elects A Quirky Libertarian, BBY Earnings
We’re in a mini Goldilocks scenario. The soft landing is playing out – Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager, Invesco There’s too much reliance on a soft landing at this point. We need to be a little bit cautious –…
Rising Rates Are Boiling The Frog, Weak Railroad Volumes, Geopolitical Chaos
Last night in “The Market Is About To Break – Part II”, I explained how rising interest rates are tightening economic conditions and hollowing out the stock market. The analysis was primarily technical in that I showed how the Magnificent…
Defense Stocks Are A Buy, Technical Weakness
You’d think defense stocks would have performed better given all the geopolitical conflict over the last two years. But – as Jon Sindreu wrote in his excellent column in this morning’s WSJ (“What Defense Shares Say About A More Violent…
Interest Rates & The Fed, 3Q Earnings, Israel-Palestine
One result of the relentless rise in interest rates – which reversed a bit last week – is that the Fed is now on pause and likely done with its rate hiking campaign. Fed Futures are pricing in a 94%…