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The State Of The Market: Can The S&P Keep Going Up Without Tech Participation?

The State Of The Market: Can The S&P Keep Going Up Without Tech Participation?

January 7, 2026 Reading Time: 5 minutes

There’s something interesting happening in the market that I don’t hear many people talking about. While the S&P 500 has broken out to new highs in recent days, it is being driven by the “soldiers” not the mega cap tech…

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Bull Market In Jeopardy As Trump Trade Sours

Bull Market In Jeopardy As Trump Trade Sours

March 10, 2025 Reading Time: 3 minutes

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria – John Templeton The election of Donald Trump last November was at first met with euphoria by investors. Tax cuts, streamlined regulation, improved government…

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The Market Is Correctly Starting To Price In A Recession And The Magnificent 7 Are Played Out

The Market Is Correctly Starting To Price In A Recession And The Magnificent 7 Are Played Out

August 3, 2024 Reading Time: 5 minutes

The narrative over the last few weeks has been that the defeat of inflation will allow The Fed to cut rates in September has resulted in a rotation out of Mega-Cap Tech (QQQ) and into Small Caps (IWM) which will…

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MCD Earnings Suggest The Economy Is Rolling Over; Small Cap Summer Has Been Canceled

MCD Earnings Suggest The Economy Is Rolling Over; Small Cap Summer Has Been Canceled

July 29, 2024 Reading Time: 5 minutes

McDonald’s (MCD) reported earnings early Monday morning and the results suggest the economy is rolling over into recession. Comps have been decelerating for a year now and went negative in 2Q24. US Comps were -0.7% compared to +10.3% a year…

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The Global Economy Rests On 7 Stocks: Understanding The Two Tier Stock Market And The Two Tier Economy

The Global Economy Rests On 7 Stocks: Understanding The Two Tier Stock Market And The Two Tier Economy

July 11, 2024 Reading Time: 5 minutes

The June CPI came in soft Thursday morning raising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September to about 85%. In an interesting reaction to the report, investors are selling the leading stocks in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and rotating into…

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Return Of The Bear, The Magnificent 7 Are Next, TLT $115

Return Of The Bear, The Magnificent 7 Are Next, TLT $115

April 18, 2024 Reading Time: 8 minutes

Early Saturday morning – even before Iran fired missiles at Israel – I wrote that the bear market was on the cusp of being resumed. In fact, I literally guaranteed it at the end of the accompanying YouTube video I…

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IWM And RSP Lead Post Fed Breakout, QQQ $445

IWM And RSP Lead Post Fed Breakout, QQQ $445

March 22, 2024 Reading Time: 5 minutes

Wednesday at 2pm EST the Fed released its policy statement explaining its March rate decision and forward outlook. At 2:30pm EST Chair Powell held a press conference. In the wake of the Fed’s maintaining its outlook for three interest rate…

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Failed Breakouts (QQQ $400, IWM $200), WBA: Good Enough

Failed Breakouts (QQQ $400, IWM $200), WBA: Good Enough

January 4, 2024 Reading Time: 2 minutes

Needless to say this is not the start to the year the crowd was expecting. Everything was breaking out at the end of last year but two of the most important ETFs in the market have failed to hold their…

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A Tale Of Two Markets: The Magnificent 7 And All The Rest

A Tale Of Two Markets: The Magnificent 7 And All The Rest

December 6, 2023 Reading Time: 2 minutes

Blame it on the WSJ’s Jon Sindreu who wrote a column about the Magnificent 7 and all the rest in today’s WSJ (“How Long Can The Magnificent 7 Stocks Hold The Line?” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]). I know I’ve beaten this argument…

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It’s Big Tech And All The Rest

It’s Big Tech And All The Rest

November 22, 2023 Reading Time: 3 minutes

I probably sound like a broken record but it’s a tale of two markets: Big Tech and all the rest. Nvidia (NVDA) reported a monster quarter Tuesday after the close and will be the focus of Wednesday’s session. Revenue of…

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I dropped out of Philosophy graduate school to start Top Gun in 2006 to profit from the bursting of the housing bubble. The stock market peaked in 2007 and Top Gun beat the S&P by more than 50% in 2008... Learn More

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