Long TLT, Short QQQ
The market has now priced in a soft landing based on the idea that the Fed can get inflation under control without causing the economy to roll over into recession. As a result, investors have piled into QQQ and completely…
Euphoria Reigns As Investors Price In Soft Landing
The stock market rally so far this year is only picking up speed. Last week’s benign June CPI Report has led investors to believe that the Fed will end its hiking cycle next week without pushing the economy into a…
Sell Calls, Play Defense
There is an article on the front page of today’s WSJ Business & Finance section about how investors are buying calls in record volumes – and paying up for them (“The Bull Market Is Just Getting Started, Traders Bet” [SUBSCRIPTION…
QQQ Testing 200 DMA, Keep An Eye On The $
The 200 DMA is the most fundamental line in technical analysis. By definition, securities and indexes that are above upward sloping 200 DMAs are considered to be in uptrends. Conversely, securities and indexes that are below downward sloping 200 DMAs…
Rising Interest Rates Hit Tech Stocks
After a correction in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, interest rates have resumed their uptrend with the 10 year treasury yield jumping 14 basis points to a 52-week high of 2.14% Monday. As I’ve discussed many times of…
BMBL Provides More Evidence For My Bifurcated Market Thesis
The market is bifurcated into the mega cap tech stocks that have held up well so far – and thus propped up the indexes – and the smaller but still important stocks that have already suffered brutal bear markets. My…
QQQ < $380, NASDAQ Closes At 3-Month Low
On Thursday, the bears got to the generals, breaking many of them down below key support levels. The QQQ closed below the crucial $380 for the first time since late October 2021. Microsoft (MSFT) – the 2nd largest stock in…
Bears Get To The Big 7 – And It May Not Be Over
Up until this point, we have experienced what I have termed a “stealth bear market”. That is, many of the important but not leading stocks have been beaten down. For example, as Willie Delwiche tweeted yesterday in the chart above,…
Stocks Fall Again On Omicron And Manchin
Stocks fell again Monday on concerns about Omicron and Senator Manchin blocking the Build Back Better stimulus bill. The S&P was -1.14%, the NASDAQ -1.24% and the Russell -1.57%. NYSE + NASDAQ Advancers to Decliners were 1,933 to 6,121 on…
Bear Market To Begin In 2022, Defense Wins Championships
Stocks were mostly under pressure again Friday with the S&P -1.03%, NASDAQ -0.07% and Russell +1.00%. QQQ lost its 50 DMA but I expect $380 to hold through year end. NYSE + NASDAQ Advancers to Decliners were 3,902 to 4,108…