We are now in the early stages of a depression. The economic indicators we follow to track real economic activity are all signalling a slowdown of massive proportions. You wouldn’t know it reading the mainstream papers of course – they all focus on the relative decline in the slowdown’s intensity. Reading about the slowdown ‘slowing down’ is not the same as growth however, and does not warrant excitement in our opinion.
In our view, the only thing propping this market up is investor sentiment. Earnings have not improved. Keep it simple, stupid – investing is and has always been about the real economy, and this market is ignoring the hard data. You can investment in sentiment if you want to, but as we have said before, we prefer to invest in real things.