The only sectors that have really performed well since the Jan 22-23 lows are energy and basic materials.
Along the same lines, Brazil, an economy and stock market dominated by commodity producers (national oil company Petrobas and miner Compania Vale Rio Doce make up about 50% of the Brazilian ETF (EWZ)) has been on a tear, leading the emerging markets since the Jan 22-23 lows (EWZ 2 Month Chart).
My feeling is that we won’t break the Jan 22-23 lows until these sectors breakdown. When they do, however, lookout.
On the importance of Brazil, also see Michael Kahn “Throwing BRICs At The Market” on Barron’s Online (subscription required).