2Q26 Client Update
After our terrific year last year, I was hoping for more of the same in 2026. And while we got off to a good start in 1Q26, we didn’t make much progress in 2Q26. That’s because the market is increasingly…
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Hard Assets > Digital Assets: Understanding The New Macro Regime
For more than 15 years, the best strategy which would have made you a fortune was simply to buy and hold The Magnificent 7. It was that easy. My premise is that that regime is now over and we are…
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Betting On A Countertrend Move In The Dollar and Related Intermarket Moves
The precious metals – especially silver – have gotten overly extended to the upside while the dollar seems due for a countertrend rally. SLV closed 144% above its 200 day moving average on Wednesday as massive amounts of funds flow…
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Year End Letter: Top Gun Returns 38% in 2025
January 3, 2026 It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes – Jesse Livermore The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at…
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The State of the Market; The Debate Over Interest Rates; Gold Crash
The S&P continues to trade within the 200 point candle from Friday October 10th defined by 6750 on the topside and 6550 on the bottom. From a technical standpoint, until we breakout of that candle one way or the other…
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Why Is The Fed Cutting Rates? Value In The Dating App Stocks, Homebuilders Breaking Down
The Fed is going to cut rates a quarter point on Wednesday – but it shouldn’t and it doesn’t seem like it wants to. The stock market is at all time highs, Bitcoin is over $100,000 and inflation remains stubbornly…
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Why Are The Precious Metals Rallying?
The precious metals have been on fire the last four months and The Wall Street Journal took notice this morning in an article on the front of their “Business & Finance” section. The most popular gold and silver miners ETFs…
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A Fed Pivot But Weak Earnings
When I go out I like a burger with fries or a margarita with salt. But that’s not what the market is serving. We’ve got a Fed pivot with weak earnings. What should we do? Obviously a Fed pivot –…
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Sniffing Out A Fed Pivot…. Again
Stocks rallied Friday as The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos penned a column suggesting that the Fed may be close to pivoting to a less hawkish stance. Timiraos suggested that – while the Fed will raise another 75 points on November…
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The Peak Inflation Narrative
An interesting meme has taken hold of the crowd mind that is financial markets in recent weeks: The Peak Inflation Narrative. It started when Powell signaled a 50 basis point hike on Thursday April 21 and has gained momentum since….
