Early Saturday morning – even before Iran fired missiles at Israel – I wrote that the bear market was on the cusp of being resumed. In fact, I literally guaranteed it at the end of the accompanying YouTube video I…
Interest rates matter. A lot. Depending on their level, interest rates can stimulate or restrict economic growth. The level of interest rates is also crucial in the valuation of financial assets. Currently there is a lot of disagreement about where…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield…
The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism the best time to sell – John Templeton Powell and The Fed surprised the market Wednesday by changing their tune. Instead of their…
The crowd is right during the trend but wrong at both ends – Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking Contrarian investing is widely misunderstood. Most of the time it pays to invest with the trend and the crowd. It’s…
Last week was an important week as the market cap weighted S&P and NASDAQ both broke below their 200 DMAs. It was something I’d been expecting given the underlying internal weakness in the market for quite some time now (“The…
Any weakness in [Big Tech’s earnings reports] could be the catalyst for the market weight S&P to decisively break below its 200 DMA which I’ve been forecasting for three weeks now – “Market Technicals Heading Into Big Tech Earnings”, Top…
[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed…
The market has now priced in a soft landing based on the idea that the Fed can get inflation under control without causing the economy to roll over into recession. As a result, investors have piled into QQQ and completely…
There are basically two narratives you can have at the current moment. The consensus view is that now that inflation is under control, the bear market is over and stocks are on the verge of a new bull market. The…