The market is pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. But the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply over the last week. What gives? Contrary to many people’s…
The S&P continues to trade within the 200 point candle from Friday October 10th defined by 6750 on the topside and 6550 on the bottom. From a technical standpoint, until we breakout of that candle one way or the other…
The consensus after Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday morning at Jackson Hole is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17. Therefore interest rates are going lower, right? Not so fast. The Fed controls the…
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria – John Templeton The election of Donald Trump last November was at first met with euphoria by investors. Tax cuts, streamlined regulation, improved government…
The narrative over the last few weeks has been that the defeat of inflation will allow The Fed to cut rates in September has resulted in a rotation out of Mega-Cap Tech (QQQ) and into Small Caps (IWM) which will…
Early Saturday morning – even before Iran fired missiles at Israel – I wrote that the bear market was on the cusp of being resumed. In fact, I literally guaranteed it at the end of the accompanying YouTube video I…
Interest rates matter. A lot. Depending on their level, interest rates can stimulate or restrict economic growth. The level of interest rates is also crucial in the valuation of financial assets. Currently there is a lot of disagreement about where…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield…
The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism the best time to sell – John Templeton Powell and The Fed surprised the market Wednesday by changing their tune. Instead of their…
The crowd is right during the trend but wrong at both ends – Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking Contrarian investing is widely misunderstood. Most of the time it pays to invest with the trend and the crowd. It’s…