Long TLT, Short QQQ
The market has now priced in a soft landing based on the idea that the Fed can get inflation under control without causing the economy to roll over into recession. As a result, investors have piled into QQQ and completely…
TLT $150
There are basically two narratives you can have at the current moment. The consensus view is that now that inflation is under control, the bear market is over and stocks are on the verge of a new bull market. The…
Inflation Is Dead; Deflation Is At Hand
Inflation is yesterday’s news. The Fed had already crushed it with all its rate hikes and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and its collateral damage are ushering in deflation. While the Fed Futures are split on if the Fed…
The 200 DMA
Technical Analysis is bullshit. You can always find a line to draw that makes it look like support or resistance. For example, I remember technicians on Twitter talking about the 200 Week Moving Average being support at the end of…
A Look Back At Next Year
ANOTHER BEAR MARKET RALLY: The stock market has rallied nicely the last couple of months and once again the bulls are saying the bottom is in. It isn’t. Like March and August this is another bear market rally – though…
A Fed Pivot But Weak Earnings
When I go out I like a burger with fries or a margarita with salt. But that’s not what the market is serving. We’ve got a Fed pivot with weak earnings. What should we do? Obviously a Fed pivot –…
Sniffing Out A Fed Pivot…. Again
Stocks rallied Friday as The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos penned a column suggesting that the Fed may be close to pivoting to a less hawkish stance. Timiraos suggested that – while the Fed will raise another 75 points on November…
Something Is Going To Break
I’m not trying to scare anybody but I have a premonition that something is about to break. The relentless move higher in the dollar and the ten year treasury yield is tightening global financial conditions on a daily basis. The…
The Peak Inflation Narrative
An interesting meme has taken hold of the crowd mind that is financial markets in recent weeks: The Peak Inflation Narrative. It started when Powell signaled a 50 basis point hike on Thursday April 21 and has gained momentum since….
Partridge: It’s A Bull Market You Know
Perhaps the most important thing ever written on trading is Chapter 5 of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – Jesse Livermore’s story. In that chapter, Jesse introduces us to Partridge. When told to sell his position in a winning stock…