Top Gun FP Client Note: The Correction Bulls

NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time.

Originally sent to clients Wednesday March 23.

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The benefit of the doubt rests with the idea that Japan will succeed with some sort of stabilization of the reactors, removing the threat of a cataclysm.

That would allow Wall Street to pick up where it left off before Japan’s horrific earthquake and tsunami: still betting on U.S. economic growth, expecting rising inflation and higher interest rates, and warily watching the unrest in the Middle East and its effect on oil prices.

“Wall Street Bets Against A Meltdown”, Tom Petruno, The Los Angeles Times, March 19

The difference between a correction and the start of something deeper is, of course, observable only after the first has or hasn’t become the second, the way colds usually remain just colds unless and until they give way to pneumonia.

History favors the notion that this is just a nasty cold.
 
“Calamity And The Correction Bulls”, Michael Santoli, Barron’s, March 19
 
We believe it is important for investors to appreciate that 1250 is an attractive entry point for equities, and we continue to see 1250 as probably the low for the year.
 
– Thomas Lee, US Equity Strategist, JP Morgan, quoted in “A New Clear Option For Market Bulls”, Steven Sears, Barron’s, March 22
The prevailing sentiment in the market right now is that last week’s panic selling was a buying opportunity.
 
This consensus supported stocks around 1250 last Wednesday and pushed them up close to 1300 at Monday’s close.  There has been some profit taking and consolidation the last two days which makes sense since in addition to being round number resistance both the 20 and 50 day moving averages are overhead at 1300.
 
This provides a clear short term technical framework.  A decisive move through 1300 puts the bulls back in charge.  However, a failure to do so in the next few days sets up for a test of 1250.
sp-5-month-chart-with-moving-averages

NOW IS THE TIME TO INVEST WITH TOP GUN: If you have been thinking about investing with Top Gun, now is a good time to give me a call or shoot me an e-mail.
Greg Feirman
Founder & CEO
Top Gun Financial (www.topgunfp.com)
A Registered Investment Advisor
9700 Village Center Dr. #50H
Granite Bay CA 95746
(916) 224-0113
 
CALL NOW FOR A FREE CONSULTATION BY PHONE OR IN PERSON!
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2 Responses to “Top Gun FP Client Note: The Correction Bulls”
  • Greg, so now it’s up to the market to tell you whether it will go up or down. Last week the correction was not over. Oops. This week if the market keeps going higher, then the bulls will be in charge. What value do you add?

    Mea Culpa  ·  Mar 27, 2011 at 7:50 pm  ·  Permalink
  • I add no value for someone like you Mea Culpa.

    Only to my clients who are up 50% since the beginning of 2007 in a down market.

    Greg Feirman  ·  Mar 28, 2011 at 6:55 am  ·  Permalink

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