UBER Is Crushing It But The Stock Is Short Term Overbought


UBER reported another strong quarter this morning and I now believe the stock will be a long term winner – but it’s overbought in the short term. 4Q22 Gross Bookings increased 19% compared to a year ago to $30.75 billion. For the full year, Gross Bookings increased 28% to $115.4 billion. In addition, UBER is now profitable on an Adjusted EBITDA basis. 4Q22 Adjusted EBITDA was $665 million and full year 2022 was $1713 million. UBER’s 1Q23 guidance was also solid at Gross Bookings constant currency growth of 20%-24% and Adjusted EBITDA of $660-$700 million. My estimate for full year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA is $2250 million and UBER currently trades at a 30x multiple to that. In other words, UBER is on track to become a profitable company and is growing into its valuation. While the stock is exhausted short term, I believe UBER will be one of the most important stocks in the market for years to come.

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