Worst Jobs Report Since December 1974

December 5, 2008 at 10:20 am  ·  Category: Macro Economics, Market Commentary, Sentiment Analysis

This is almost indescribably terrible – Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

Quite simply, there was nothing good in this report – David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

The November decline stands as the largest single month drop since December 1974 – David Resler, Nomura Securities

These are god-awful numbers.  The economy is headed downhill and the brakes are not working – Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics

A shockingly weak report – RDQ Economics

This was much worse than was expected and represents wholesale capitulation.  The threat of a widespread depression is now real and present – Peter Morici, University of Maryland

This morning the BLS reported a 533,000 drop in non-farm payrolls in November – the worst number since December 1974.  The unemployment rate increased from 6.5% to 6.7%.

It is worth pointing out that the labor force is much bigger today than it was in the past.  Taking that into account, the percentage decline in employment is only the 41st worst of all-time.

That said, this is much worse than expected with most forecasts calling for losses in the 300,000 range.

The key to me, however, is the market reaction.  This is a terrible, worse than expected, report.  But the Dow is only down 140-150 points and the S&P 14-15.  That’s mild.  Again, this is suggesting to me that a lot of this “indescribably terrible” news is already priced into stocks.  I’m encouraged by the market reaction.

Posted by Greg Feirman  ·  Trackback URL  ·  Link
 

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