Will The Fed Overshoot?
The stock market has suffered a nasty correction in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole two weeks ago. While the Fed is right that letting inflation linger would be a grave mistake they could also…
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Countdown To The August CPI
We’re a CPI Report away from Jackson Hole being peak hawkish – Rob Crumpton, Stocktwits, Friday September 2 6:23am PST Rob Crumpton had a great tweet on Stocktwits Friday morning. While everybody is in a panic over Fed Chairman Powell’s…
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BBY Earnings Show Consumer Tightening Up
Best Buy (BBY) is a favorite stock of mine as a window into consumer spending because it sells discretionary items. Almost all of its sales come from computing, mobile phones, electronics and appliances. Its 2Q22 earnings report Tuesday morning clearly…
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The Market Will Trade In A Range For The Rest Of The Year; Recession Coming In 2023
Two weeks ago people were talking about the end of the bear market and a new bull market. Now – after Powell’s speech – the narrative has completely reversed course and most seem to be expecting new lows imminently. In…
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Powell Lectures The Market
On Friday morning Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much awaited speech in Jackson Hole, WY to lecture the market like a father whose teenage son took the car without permission. Powell was clearly annoyed by the market’s presumption in…
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CRM Lowers Guidance As Revenue Growth Decelerates
Like most tech stocks Salesforce (CRM) had a nice bounce off its May lows but that rally may be coming to an end. CRM reported 2Q22 earnings after the close Wednesday and the results clearly show revenue growth decelerating. CRM…
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All Eyes On J-Pow
The rally off the June lows is premised on the following argument: Inflation is peaking; therefore the Fed will slow the pace of its rate hikes; which will ease the pressure on risk assets. But the market had some doubts…
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The Technicians Are Extremely Bullish
While the technicians continue to see downtrends and consolidations, the market is now headed higher for the intermediate term. By the time the technicians have their price “confirmation” the rally will be mostly over and it will be time to…
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Earnings/Growth: The Next Domino To Fall
The market is in a happy place right now. Last Wednesday’s cooler than expected July CPI Report cemented the belief in The Peak Inflation Narrative and The Fed Pivot. The idea is that inflation has peaked and therefore the Fed…
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The Easy Money Has Been Made
This morning’s cooler than expected July CPI Report has catalyzed a nice rally in stocks and created a “the coast is clear” mentality. The Peak Inflation Narrative appears to be confirmed and therefore the Fed is expected to slow its…
