Countdown To The August CPI

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We’re a CPI Report away from Jackson Hole being peak hawkish – Rob Crumpton, Stocktwits, Friday September 2 6:23am PST

Rob Crumpton had a great tweet on Stocktwits Friday morning. While everybody is in a panic over Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole two Fridays ago Crumpton tweeted:
“We’re one CPI report away from peak hawkishness”.

While everybody is sure at the moment that the Fed will raise 75 basis points in September a somewhat cool August CPI number on Tuesday morning September 13 would put 50 back on the table. And there’s every reason to expect the August CPI to continue the cooling trend begun with the July CPI. For just one example take a look at the chart of gasoline futures in the tweet above by Steve Strazza. Like most other commodity prices it is coming down hard.

While the market overshot a few weeks ago on a Fed Pivot it may well be overshooting again on renewed Fed hawkishness.

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