SAM Made A Mistake But It’s Still A Great Company


Boston Beer (SAM) – the maker of Sam Adams – is a great company that made a mistake. They over estimated the demand for hard seltzer which the end of the pandemic upended. As a result, from guiding 2021 EPS to $22-$26 on April 22, 2021, actual 2021 EPS came in at $1.17. Suffice it to say 2021 was a complete debacle for SAM. But that has created a tremendous opportunity for investors. SAM is still a great company and they will turn things around.

SAM stock has lost ~75% of its value over the past year closing Thursday at $365.76. As recently as 2020 SAM grew net revenue almost 40% and net income almost 70% to $15.53. While they have only guided 2022 EPS to $11-$16, after such a rout any sign of a turnaround should lead to a nice pop in the stock. Whether you want to enter a position before SAM reports 1Q22 earnings Thursday afternoon, after, or a combination, I think this stock is poised for a turnaround.

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