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A few weeks later things feel decidedly different. The S&P powered through 1900 on its way to Friday’s close just below 1950 and the market’s animal spirits have been awakened. It seems likely that we are paving the road to S&P 2000 – which would mark a 200% advance since the March ’09 bear market lows.
While I am bullish and long, it is time to start making plans for becoming more cautious. The most recent issue of Jim Stack’s excellent Investech Newsletter included an aptly titled section “Conservative Investing For The Final Stretch”. Within that section, I was struck by the following sentence: “Based on historical bull market longevity a final top is almost certain in the next 1-2 years.”
In my opinion, investing intelligently at the moment entails striking the proper balance between the potential gains from a final leg higher against the potential losses in the inevitable next bear market.