Two weeks ago people were talking about the end of the bear market and a new bull market. Now – after Powell’s speech – the narrative has completely reversed course and most seem to be expecting new lows imminently. In…
On Friday morning Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much awaited speech in Jackson Hole, WY to lecture the market like a father whose teenage son took the car without permission. Powell was clearly annoyed by the market’s presumption in…
The rally off the June lows is premised on the following argument: Inflation is peaking; therefore the Fed will slow the pace of its rate hikes; which will ease the pressure on risk assets. But the market had some doubts…
The market is in a happy place right now. Last Wednesday’s cooler than expected July CPI Report cemented the belief in The Peak Inflation Narrative and The Fed Pivot. The idea is that inflation has peaked and therefore the Fed…
This morning’s cooler than expected July CPI Report has catalyzed a nice rally in stocks and created a “the coast is clear” mentality. The Peak Inflation Narrative appears to be confirmed and therefore the Fed is expected to slow its…
Growth stocks, crypto and hookups. YOLO. If only I was Dan Bilzerian. Online dating leader Match (MTCH) and online brokerage Robinhood (HOOD) reported 2Q22 earnings Tuesday after the close. MTCH is the owner of Tinder – the preferred hookup app…
You heard it here first: the lows of the year are in. The bear market is not over. That was simply chapter 1. We’re a long way from home. This is a tactical call for the next few months. While…
We’re hitting peak inflation and yet the dollar remains as strong as it is. That doesn’t point to a meaningful recovery for gold prices – Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer SVB Private (quoted in WSJ) It’s been a long, miserable…
It’s been an extremely volatile year for commodity stock bulls like myself. During the first quarter the stocks marched relentlessly higher along with inflation and commodity prices while the second quarter was the mirror image of the first as the…
You don’t want to overdo the rate increases – Fed Governor Christopher Waller, quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed Leans Towards Another 75 Point Increase: Consensus Builds Against Larger Boost Despite Worry Over June Inflation Report” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ A1, Monday…