While the Fed is almost certain to pause its interest rate hiking campaign tomorrow, the question now is whether it can engineer a soft landing. On the front page of today’s WSJ, Nick Timiraos surveyed the risks (“Why A Soft…
The focus next week will be on the Fed Decision on Wednesday at 2pm EST. However – despite the August CPI coming in slightly hotter than expected this Wednesday – the Fed is widely expected to pause. Whether they are…
The August Jobs Report on Friday was a “goldilocks” report by consensus. The economy added 187,000 jobs in August – according to the BLS – while prior months were revised down by 110,000. It therefore appears that the jobs market…
There’s an actual chance here the Fed could stick the landing – Dryden Pence, CIO Pence Capital Management (quoted in Karen Langley “Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals As Rally Builds” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED], WSJ B1 Wednesday 7/26) In less than…
The stock market rally so far this year is only picking up speed. Last week’s benign June CPI Report has led investors to believe that the Fed will end its hiking cycle next week without pushing the economy into a…
The June CPI Report came in below expectations Wednesday morning resulting in another rally in stocks. Headline CPI was 3.0% and Core 4.8%. For some reason the Fed feels the need to hike rates one more time in two weeks…
The Fed is widely expected to do a “hawkish pause” today. What exactly does that mean? It means that while they will not raise interest rates, Powell is expected to be hawkish in his press conference. That is, he will…
The case that a new bull market has begun is growing stronger. From a technical standpoint, the S&P broke out to a 52-week high Monday and has continued higher Tuesday. Inflation continues to roll over with today’s May CPI coming…
Any way you slice it, inflation is clearly coming down and seemingly under control. Wednesday’s April CPI Report was just the latest data point to confirm that. And that means that the Fed’s hiking cycle is likely over. Fed Futures…
On Wednesday, The Fed raised the fed funds rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25% – the highest level since 2007. Importantly, they removed a line from their statement saying that “the committee anticipates that some additional firming may be appropriate”…