Short QQQ, Long TLT
The crowd is right during the trend but wrong at both ends – Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking Contrarian investing is widely misunderstood. Most of the time it pays to invest with the trend and the crowd. It’s…
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Calling Powell’s Bluff, AAPL Earnings On Deck, MTCH: You Don’t Love Me Anymore? Playing For A PYPL Pop
In about three hours, the Fed will release its interest rate decision and statement followed by Powell’s press conference. While it’s almost a lock that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, it seems likely that the statement and Powell…
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CAT Earnings, Public Storage (PSA) On Sale, Uranium (CCJ), Fed Meeting
Heavy machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT) reported 3Q23 earnings Tuesday morning and the stock is breaking down below its 200 DMA at the open. While sales of $16.8 billion beat estimates and increased by 12% compared to a year ago, investors…
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Preview Week of 10/30-11/3: Fed On Pause, AAPL Earnings, Buy Bonds
Last week was an important week as the market cap weighted S&P and NASDAQ both broke below their 200 DMAs. It was something I’d been expecting given the underlying internal weakness in the market for quite some time now (“The…
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The Market Is About To Break – Part II
Fed Chair Powell sent interest rates soaring and tanked the stock market Thursday when he continued to press his “higher for longer” narrative at the Economic Club of New York. He doesn’t seem to understand that it’s time to change…
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Interest Rates & The Fed, 3Q Earnings, Israel-Palestine
One result of the relentless rise in interest rates – which reversed a bit last week – is that the Fed is now on pause and likely done with its rate hiking campaign. Fed Futures are pricing in a 94%…
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The Market Is About To Break
On August 24, I argued in “The Bear Market Rally Is Over” that the outperformance of The Magnificent 7 was masking weak overall market internals and that the bear market was over. About a month later on September 20, the…
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S&P 200 DMA, Higher For Longer Isn’t Sustainable, CAG Is Too Cheap
September was a tough month for stocks with the S&P down 4.87% and the NASDAQ 5.81%. In fact, the S&P is currently sitting only 2% above its 200 DMA. The 200 DMA is the most important indicator in technical analysis….
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Yields Break Out, The Olive Tree Barometer
In the wake of the Fed’s “hawkish pause” Wednesday, in which they paused their interest rate hiking campaign but said they may still hike one more time this year and increased their forecast for the Fed Funds rate at the…
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Peak Hawkishness: All In On TLT
[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed…
