The Likely Narrative Through Year End, The Bear Market Rally of 1929-30, Historic Overvaluation

The vaccine announcement has given bullish investors a put option – Jim Paulsen, CIO, The Leuthold Group on “The Vaccine Put”, quoted in Ben Levishon, Barron’s, The Trader Column, November 21, 2020 For the last 6 weeks of 2020, I expect…

An “Inside Day” / “Dueling Tails” Still Define The Range, GDX & GDXJ, Bigger Picture Issues Through Year End

Note: A few months ago I started writing a daily morning market email for clients, friends and family. I recently decided to start making this email more broadly available. Email me at gfeirman@topgunfp.com if you’d like to be added to…

The Hallmark of a Bubble, The Long Term Consequences of Massive Government Stimulus and Bank Earnings

Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday’s memo, “Coming Into Focus” (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/coming-into-focus.pdf), was one…

The Top Is Probably In

Let’s flashback to March 2000 when the Dot.com Bubble topped. The NASDAQ closed above 5,000 twice – Thursday 3/9 and Friday 3/10. And that was it. Today, the NASDAQ closed above 10,000 for the first time. Because of human psychology,…